- Steel inventories rise from late Sep
- Crude steel output up; demand weak
According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), total steel inventories at key member mills stood at 15.88 million tonnes (mnt) in early October 2025, marking an increase of 1.21 mnt or 8.2% compared with 14.67 mnt in late September. On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, inventories were up by 0.06 mnt or 0.6%, and by 1.15 mnt or 7.8% year-on-year (Y-o-y), indicating continued accumulation amid sluggish demand recovery.
Production trends
In early October, daily crude steel output at CISA affiliated mills averaged 2.032 mnt, up 7.5% from late September, but down 0.9% y-o-y, reflecting partial resumption of production after previous curbs.
Pig iron output averaged 1.875 mnt, rising 3.2% against late September and 1.1% y-o-y, suggesting steady blast furnace operations.
However, finished steel output slipped to 1.961 mnt per day, down 8.5% m-o-m, though slightly higher or 1.4% year-on-year, indicating cautious downstream demand and higher inventory pressure at mills.
Market outlook
China’s steel market remains subdued as inventories rise and post-holiday demand shows limited recovery. Rebar consumption is easing amid a construction slowdown, while flat steel demand stays muted. The output rebound followed the lifting of production curbs in China, CISA stated. Rising rebar supply is expected to weigh on market sentiment as end-user demand remains weak, keeping near-term prices under pressure.
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