- Crude steel, finished products output decline
- Weak demand, falling prices pressure output
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) revealed that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises stood at 15.23 million tonnes (mnt) in late-March 2025. Inventory levels decreased by 1.67 mnt or 9.9% from 16.91 mnt in mid-March 2025. However, inventory declined by 3.2 mnt or 17.4% y-o-y from 18.43 mnt in late-March 2024.
Production volumes
The average daily crude steel output of CISA-affiliated mills touched 2.125 mnt in late-March 2025, down by 1.9% compared to 2.166 mnt in mid-March.
The average daily finished steel output stood at 2.16 mnt in late-March, a decrease of 2.3% against 2.112 mnt in mid-March. Moreover, on a y-o-y basis, output dropped by 7.3%.
Average pig iron output stood at 1.877 mnt in late-March, dropping by 2.6% as compared to 1.927 mnt in mid-March. Furthermore, on a y-o-y basis, output declined by 8.6%.
Outlook
China’s steel output is likely to stay under pressure amid weak global demand, falling prices, and persistent trade barriers from countries such as the US and Vietnam. The recent drop in production and inventories reflects a cautious approach by mills to avoid oversupply and stabilise margins.
Considering weak domestic consumption and limited export opportunities, steel mills will probably continue to operate at reduced production rates. Unless global demand strengthens or supportive policies are implemented, both output and inventory levels are expected to remain lower compared to the previous year.
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