- Exports fall 3% m-o-m in Aug; Jan-Aug volumes rise 10%
- Competitive prices, weak domestic demand boost exports
China’s steel exports for August 2025 were up marginally by 0.1% to 9.51 million tonnes (mnt) as compared to 9.49 mnt in August 2024, as per the General Administration of Customs. In January-August 2025, exports stood at 77.49 mnt, up by 10% against 70.69 mnt in the same period a year ago. The same was down by 3% from 9.84 mnt in the previous month.
Factors driving China’s steel exports
Demand contraction continues to weigh on market: Domestic steel demand in China remained sluggish in August, with subdued construction activity — a major steel consumer — weighing heavily on demand due to the persistent weakness in the property market.
This domestic downturn led Chinese steel producers to rely heavily on exports to sustain production levels, helping them maintain output despite lacklustre internal consumption.
August is typically a slow period for steel consumption in China, with high temperatures and heavy rains disrupting outdoor construction activities, further contributing to the subdued demand landscape.
Competitive pricing boosts China’s exports: In August, imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers from China to the Middle East were at around $514/t CFR UAE, marking an increase of $31/t compared with $483/t CFR UAE in July.
China’s FOB HRC offers stood at $459/t, remaining the most competitive in the market. By comparison, Japanese offers were at $470/t FOB, while Indian offers were significantly higher at $510/t FOB.
Outlook
Despite stable export volumes driven by competitive pricing, China’s near-term steel export outlook faces significant challenges. Rising global trade protectionism and new anti-dumping duties from key markets pose a substantial downside risk, as structural headwinds from weak domestic demand persist.
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