China’s cumulative steel exports for January and February 2025 stood at 16.972 million tonnes (mnt), up by 6.7% y-o-y against 15.90 mnt in January and February 2024, as per General Administration of Customs.
Factors driving China’s steel exports
Sluggish domestic market sentiments: A slowdown in China’s real estate and construction sectors has reduced domestic steel demand, but stable production capacity has created a surplus, which is being exported. Chinese steel’s competitive pricing has not only maintained its global market share but also positioned it as an attractive option for international buyers due to its lower prices.
Competitive export offers: Chinese steel exports maintained their competitive edge in terms of pricing, outperforming other origins. In January, Chinese export offers were quoted at $472/t FOB, and in February, they stood at $470/t FOB. Notably, these prices were substantially lower than India’s export offers, which were $505/t FOB in January and $495/t FOB in February.
Outlook
While China’s steel exports experienced growth in the first two months of 2025, escalating trade barriers pose a significant threat. Increased tariffs from the US, along with similar protectionist measures from India, South Korea and Vietnam. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainties, tariffs, trade restrictions, and supply chain disruptions are potential risks that may impact Chinese steel exports.
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