- Export volumes up by 1.6% m-o-m
- Competitive offers support export activities
China’s steel exports rose by 25.7% y-o-y to 9.836 million tonnes (mnt) in July 2025, as per data released by the country’s General Administration of Customs. In July 2024, exports had stood at around 7.82 mnt.
On a m-o-m basis, volumes increased by 1.6% against 9.678 mnt in June 2025.
Cumulative steel exports for 7MCY’25 (January-July 2025) reached 67.983 mnt, up by about 11.4% compared to the same period last year.
Market overview
Competitive export offers boost exports in Jul’25: Chinese steel prices still stand competitive on the global platform, giving tough competition to other exporting countries. Chinese steel exports have risen this year despite the stringent safeguard measures announced by major importing countries, such as the US, EU, and some Southeast Asian countries.
The monthly average export offers for Chinese-origin hot-rolled coils (HRC) stood at $464/tonne (t) FOB Rizhao in July 2025, down by $42/t as compared to $506/t/t FOB in July 2024. The weekly assessed HRC export offers from China had moved up from $445/t FOB Rizhao at the beginning of July 2025 to $490/t FOB towards the month’s end. Still, it remains a challenge for other exporting countries like India, South Korea and Japan to offer this low in the global market.
Domestic demand slump, opening up of global demand, support exports: China’s steel industry has been increasingly relying on exports as a primary outlet for its production. Since the beginning of the calendar year 2025, the global prices have seen more declines than rises. Moreover, the slow domestic demand has also pushed Chinese producers and sellers to scout for export opportunities this year. The ongoing struggles within China’s construction sector, characterised by declining property prices and investments, have resulted in a substantial oversupply of steel in the domestic market.
Outlook
Export volumes might experience minimal change throughout the year 2025. The efforts made by the government to stimulate consumer demand, including a trade-in scheme for appliances and vehicles, have had a limited impact so far in 7MCY’25. Chinese steel consumption is projected to drop by 1.5% y-o-y in 2025. Thus, despite the production control measures, the Chinese steel industry is likely to have a surplus of material and the motivation to export surplus production is likely to persist.
Leave a Reply