- Weak domestic demand keeps exports elevated
- Competitive pricing sustains shipment volumes
China’s steel exports reached 9.98 million tonnes (mnt) in November 2025, up by 7.6% y-o-y from 9.27 mnt a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs.
This brought the total exports for January-November 2025 to 107.71 mnt, a 6.7% rise from 101.29 mnt in the same period last year. Additionally, on a m-o-m basis, steel exports edged up by 2% against 9.78 mnt recorded in October 2025.
Factors driving China’s steel exports
Sluggish domestic demand: China’s domestic steel demand remained subdued, weighed down by persistent weakness in the property sector, expectations of a seasonal slowdown, and limited policy support from the central government. Market sentiment stayed cautious as buyers remained uncertain about the strength of end-user demand, while elevated supply levels added further pressure on prices.
As a result, the domestic oversupply and bearish sentiment prompted producers to channel more volumes into overseas markets to ease inventory pressure and sustain production rates.
Competitive pricing boosts China’s exports: In November, Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC) export offers to the Middle East fell by $19/t m-o-m to around $482/t CFR UAE, heightening competition for other exporters. Meanwhile, Indian offers to the region were comparatively higher at about $505/t CFR UAE in the same month.
China’s FOB HRC offers for the month stood at $464/t, remaining the most competitive, whereas Indian offers in comparison were higher at around $480/t FOB.
Outlook
China’s subdued domestic demand and elevated inventories are likely to keep mills directing more volumes to overseas markets, supported by competitive export pricing in December, and the first quarter of CY 2026. Until domestic end-user demand shows a clearer recovery, China’s steel export volumes are expected to remain robust through the coming months.
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