- Price advantage fails to drive export growth
- Rising supply overseas adds to competitive pressure
China exported 10.492 million tonnes (mnt) of steel in September 2026, up 0.3% y-o-y and 3.3% m-o-m from 10.155 mnt in August. However, cumulative exports during January-September declined 2.6% y-o-y to 85.641 mnt. Despite competitive pricing in overseas markets, Chinese steel exports remained lower y-o-y over the nine-month period, as weak export orders, rising competition from overseas producers, and trade barriers limited China’s price advantage.
China’s steel exports fall despite competitive pricing
Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC) export prices remained competitive against offers from other regional suppliers. Japan’s HRC export price averaged $544/t FOB Tokyo in September 2026, providing a regional benchmark for comparison. While competitively priced Chinese HRC helped suppliers compete for overseas orders, the price advantage alone was not enough to drive export growth amid weak orders, alternative supply options and trade barriers.
Overseas supply adds to competitive pressure
Steel production outside China continued to grow, adding to the supply available in international markets. Higher domestic production in importing countries can reduce their reliance on imported steel, while overseas producers compete for remaining demand. This adds to the competitive pressure facing Chinese exporters, even when their offers are attractively priced.
Manufacturing conditions provide mixed demand signals
Global manufacturing activity strengthened in September, with the Manufacturing PMI reaching 53.0, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, offering some support to demand for industrial steel products, including flat steel. However, China’s manufacturing new export orders index weakened during the month, indicating that stronger global manufacturing conditions had yet to translate into improved export-order momentum for Chinese producers.
Steel export orders weaken further
The new export-order index for steel distributors declined further in September and remained below the expansion threshold, pointing to continued difficulties in securing fresh business. This indicates pressure at the order-booking stage and suggests that demand for Chinese steel exports remained weak despite the country’s price advantage.
Trade barriers restrict market access
Trade-remedy investigations and other import restrictions remained an additional challenge for Chinese steel exporters. Measures targeting specific products can raise import costs or restrict access to destination markets, making it more difficult for affected suppliers to compete. As these measures vary by product and country, they can limit sales opportunities in individual markets.
Outlook
China’s steel exports are expected to remain under pressure in October 2026, as weak external demand, rising overseas production and trade barriers limit the gains from competitive pricing. Although lower export prices may help Chinese suppliers compete for orders, changes in international steel prices and exchange rates could affect China’s pricing advantage, further influencing its export competitiveness. These factors are likely to constrain shipment growth. Monthly exports are expected to hover around 10 mnt, with modest y-o-y growth partly reflecting a low base in the corresponding period last year.
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