- NPI prices rebound from multi-year lows in late Nov’25
- Rising NPI costs lift stainless steel production expenses
SteelDaily: China’s stainless steel raw material market strengthened in December 2025 led by a rebound in nickel pig iron (NPI) and firm ferro chrome prices. The uptrend was primarily driven by policy-related uncertainties surrounding Indonesia’s nickel mining sector and supply-side adjustments, which have pushed up raw material costs and increased cost pressure on stainless steel producers.
NPI rebounds on Indonesian policy concerns
Nickel pig iron prices recovered steadily through December after hitting multi-year lows in late November. Earlier, bid prices for high-nickel NPI in South China had slipped to around RMB 880 ($125/) per nickel unit. However, sentiment improved following uncertainty over Indonesia’s nickel mining quota (RKAB) approvals and the possibility of tighter mine management policies.
As a result, high-nickel NPI prices rebounded to RMB 905-915 ($125-130/t) per nickel unit by end-December. Actual transactions also emerged, reinforcing the improved sentiment. According to market sources, an Indonesian producer sold high-nickel NPI at RMB 950 ($135/t) per nickel unit on 26 December, with delivery scheduled for January 2026, reflecting expectations of firmer raw material prices.
The rise in NPI prices has directly lifted production costs for 304-series stainless steel, limiting further downside in finished steel prices. However, with policy outcomes still uncertain, market participants expect prices to stabilise rather than rise sharply in the near term.
Ferro chrome supported by tight availability
China’s ferro chrome market remained largely stable during December, supported by tight spot availability despite a marginal decline in long-term contract prices. High-carbon ferro chrome contract prices fell by around RMB 200/t ($28/t) m-o-m, but limited spot supply prevented any sharp correction.
Spot prices for high-carbon ferro chrome were assessed at RMB 8,000-8,150 ($1,141-1,162/t) per 50 basis points by the end of the month, up around RMB 100/t ($100/t) from November levels. While production growth slowed, stainless steel output remained at steady levels, keeping the supply-demand balance relatively tight. Additionally, firm chrome ore prices continued to support production costs, reducing the likelihood of a sharp near-term price decline.
Market outlook
Overall, China’s stainless steel raw material market saw concurrent gains in NPI and ferro chrome prices in late December, adding to cost pressures for stainless steel producers. While higher input costs are helping to limit further declines in stainless steel prices, weak demand conditions and ongoing policy uncertainty are expected to cap upside potential in the near term. Market participants remain cautious, focusing on price stability rather than further gains as the year-end approaches.
Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between SteelDaily and BigMint.
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