- Mills keep run rates high, expecting pick-up in demand
- Declining prices of key raw materials ease cost pressures
Mysteel: China’s crude stainless steel output rose again in October, with production buoyed by strong operations and lower cost pressures on mills and marking a third straight month of growth.
Last month, total crude stainless output reached around 3.51 million tonnes (mnt), representing an increase of 87,100 t or 2.5% compared with September and a stronger 6.8% rise from October last year, according to the results of Mysteel’s most recent survey among the 43 stainless producers it regularly tracks nationwide.
Production increased across all stainless series last month. Output of 200-series stainless reached some 1.05 mnt in October, up 1.4% m-o-m and 7.2% y-o-y, while that of 300-series stood at 1.8 mnt — accounting for the largest share of total production — which was higher by 2.1% from September and by 6.6% from October 2024.
That of 400-series recorded the most significant monthly growth at 5.6% to 659,800 t, as production at Jiuquan Iron and Steel Group in Northwest China recovered, a source noted. Compared with the same month last year, production of this series was also higher by 6.6%.
Mills maintained high run rates in October, still anticipating a seasonal pick-up in demand during what is traditionally a peak month for stainless sales in China, Mysteel Global learnt.
In parallel, falling prices of key raw materials — specifically, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) and high-carbon ferro chrome (HC FeCr) – had eased the cost pressure on the mills and bolstered their keenness for production. For instance, on October 31, Mysteel assessed the price of high-grade NPI with 7-13% nickel content in East China’s Jiangsu province at RMB 935/mtu ($131/mtu), including delivery and tax, lower by RMB 25/mtu from a month earlier.
On the same day, Mysteel’s assessment showed that the price of 55% HC FeCr in Inner Mongolia, the key reference price in the domestic FeCr market, had fallen to RMB 8,300/t, 50Cr, ex-works including VAT, marking a sharp drop of RMB 300/t from end-September’s level.
However, early signals for November point to a slight contraction in domestic stainless production as market conditions worsen, Mysteel Global notes.
The survey results indicate a planned crude stainless output of around 3.46 mnt this month, representing a marginal decrease of 1.7% from October’s actual production. Despite this, the planned volume would still be 4.1% higher than in November 2024 if materialised.
Production of the 200-series is expected to see the most significant monthly reduction, with November’s planned output estimated at some 1 mnt, down 4.7% from October’s actual production, Mysteel data show. Two mills in East China and Southeast China’s Guangxi province are apparently preparing to cut production of 200-series during this month and next, according to an industry insider in East China’s Wuxi city.
The dominant 300-series is set for a marginal m-o-m decrease of 0.7% to roughly 1.79 mnt this month.
In contrast, 400-series production is projected to continue its upward trend with a slight m-o-m increase of 0.6% to 663,800 t. If realised, this would also mark a substantial 24.2% increase compared to the same period last year.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.
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