- Imports fall sharply by 19% amid weak price arbitrage
- Scrap imports rise 20%, signalling cost optimisation
China’s stainless steel exports reached 5.03 million tonnes (mnt) in 2025, marginally lower by 0.3% y-o-y, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. While full-year exports remained broadly stable, imports fell sharply by 19% y-o-y to 1.52 mnt, highlighting weaker inbound flows amid muted domestic demand and reduced price arbitrage.
Export momentum strengthened towards the year-end. In December, shipments rose by 19.7% m-o-m and 4% y-o-y to 485,000 t, as mills and traders front-loaded deliveries ahead of China’s new stainless steel export licensing system effective from 1 January 2026. Market participants noted that the regulatory shift prompted accelerated bookings, particularly for Southeast Asia and the Middle East, supporting short-term export volumes despite margin pressure.
Monthly imports also rebounded by 29% m-o-m and 2% y-o-y in December to 145,000 t. However, the annual decline reflects weaker reliance on overseas semi-finished and finished stainless products, as domestic supply remained ample.
On the raw material side, China’s stainless steel scrap imports increased 23.5% y-o-y in 2025 to around 120,000 t, signalling higher scrap usage amid cost optimisation efforts. December scrap arrivals stood at 11,800 t, up 20.6% y-o-y, supported by competitive pricing and steady stainless steel output.
Outlook
China’s stainless steel exports may normalise in early 2026 after the pre-licensing rush, while lower imports and higher scrap usage are likely to persist amid cautious domestic demand.
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