- Oversupply, weak demand pressure prices downward
- ZCE futures stable w-o-w despite weak spot conditions
CBC: Chinese silico manganese (Mn: 65%, Si: 17%) price tags declined slightly by RMB 70/tonne (t) ($10/t) w-o-w to RMB 5,380-5,650/t ($749-$787/t) exw, including taxes.
Silico manganese prices dipped amid rising inventories, weak steel demand, and global trade pressures. Falling raw material costs and bearish market sentiment further weighed on prices, while structural supply issues and evolving battery technologies limited support from both upstream and downstream segments.
Market updates
Supply surplus meets cost imbalance: Despite some output cuts, silico manganese inventories continued to build, heightening downward price pressure. Cost-side dynamics remained complex – South African supply disruptions and Gabon’s delayed ramp-up led to a fragile balance in manganese ore tags, while declining coke prices eroded cost support.
Regional disparities in electricity pricing add strain: Regions such as Yunnan faced stress on margins due to high electricity costs, whereas southwestern provinces capitalised on flood-season hydropower, marginally unlocking idle production capacity.
Downstream demand falters amid global trade pressures: Steel sector demand remained subdued, exacerbated by seasonal slowdowns and a cautious restocking approach by mills. The contraction is particularly pronounced in 200-series stainless steel.
Meanwhile, rising trade barriers, such as US tariffs and EU carbon taxes, dampened export potential. Although the new energy sector offered partial support, evolving battery chemistries such as lithium iron manganese phosphate diluted demand gains for silico manganese.
Bearish market sentiment fuels volatility risks: Market confidence is deteriorating, with futures dominated by short positions and spot traders increasingly risk-averse. Mounting warehouse receipts highlight tightening liquidity, while weaker capital involvement during contract transitions contributed to higher volatility. The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and sluggish industrial recovery sustains a bearish outlook, with speculative capital retreating and spot market participants bracing for prolonged price instability.
ZCE futures maintain stability: Silico manganese futures on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) for September 2025 deliveries were largely steady with a slight rise by RMB 32/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 5,584/t ($776/t) on 16 June compared to RMB 5,552/t ($773/t) on 9 June.
Outlook
Silico manganese prices may remain weak in the short term, though limited supply and seasonal electricity benefits could offer support. Pressure continues from sluggish steel demand, export hurdles, and the availability of substitute materials. Production and bidding trends will provide clarity on market dynamics.
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