- China imported over 1 million tonnes of Vietnamese rice in Jan-Aug’26.
- China’s share reached 17.4%, rising to second place from fourth last year.
China emerged as Vietnam’s second-largest rice export market during the first eight months of 2026, as imports from Vietnam doubled year-on-year to over 1 million tonnes (mnt). China imported over 565,000 tonnes (t) of Vietnamese rice worth $286.7 million during the same period in 2025. The sharp increase lifted China from fourth place last year to second, behind the Philippines. China accounted for 17.4% of Vietnam’s total rice export volume during Jan-Aug’26. The increase is mainly due to stronger Chinese demand for broken rice, which is primarily used in animal feed production.
Philippines remains largest buyer
The Philippines continued to be Vietnam’s largest rice export destination, accounting for 40.9% of total exports. Together, China and the Philippines now account for more than 64% of Vietnam’s rice exports. While strong demand from the two markets provides near-term support to Vietnam’s exports, the high concentration also increases dependence on a limited number of destinations. The ministry has therefore emphasized gradual diversification of export markets.
Vietnam’s rice exports to Iraq increased 98.9-fold y-o-y during Jan-Aug’26, although export value remained modest at just under $14 million. The recovery in shipments to Iraq highlights potential for further market diversification.
2026 exports seen at 7.74 mnt
The country exported around 377,400 t in September and is expected to ship 400,000 t in October, 220,000 t in November and 268,300 t in December. Vietnam’s total rice exports in 2026 are projected at nearly 7.74 mnt, valued at around $3.94 billion. Export value is expected to decline by 4% from 2025 due to lower average export prices during the early months of the year. At this volume, Vietnam is expected to retain its position as the world’s second-largest rice exporter, behind India.
Outlook
Vietnam’s rice exports are likely to remain firm in the coming months, supported by sustained buying from the Philippines and a sharp rise in Chinese demand. The projected global supply deficit in 2026-27 could provide further support to export prices. However, high dependence on China and the Philippines remains a risk, making market diversification important. Global supply developments, particularly India’s Kharif crop and monsoon conditions, will also influence the price outlook.
Leave a Reply