China: Iron ore prices remain flat d-o-d amid subdued holiday activity

• Trading activity remained limited
• Post-holiday demand outlook remains cautious amid steel output concerns

Iron ore fines (Fe 61%) spot prices remained stable at $91/dmt CFR North China on 7 October, despite subdued trading activity as China observed the final day of its National Day holiday. Market liquidity remained thin, although consecutive Pilbara Blend Fines (PBF) trades were reported during the first half of the week, indicating some underlying buying interest ahead of the market reopening.

With regular trading activity expected to resume from 8 October, market participants are likely to gain better clarity on the strength of post-holiday steel demand and mill procurement. The resumption of activity could provide some near-term support to iron ore prices, particularly if mills return to the market for replenishment. However, significant upside appears limited, as expectations of steel production cuts and persistently narrow mill margins are likely to keep procurement cautious.

China’s iron ore port stock prices remained unchanged on 7 October. Market sentiment remained bearish, particularly for lumps, amid oversupply and expectations of subdued post-holiday demand. However, lower prices and expectations of further coke price cuts could encourage limited restocking and provide some support to the market.

DCE iron ore futures hold steady amid cautious market sentiment

January 2027 iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) remained unchanged d-o-d at RMB 702.5/t ($104.8/t) on 7 October. The contract remained range-bound as trading activity was subdued during the final day of China’s National Day holiday, with market participants awaiting the resumption of regular trading activity.

Market sentiment continued to be cautious amid concerns over steel production curbs and weak mill margins, which could limit near-term demand for iron ore. However, relatively lower iron ore prices and expectations of further coke price cuts may provide some support to mill profitability and encourage selective restocking once the market reopens.