China: Iron ore prices decline d-o-d as cautious mill buying and coke cuts weigh on sentiment

• Iron ore prices fall on weak demand and margin concerns
• DCE futures edge up amid cautious sentiment

Iron ore fines (Fe 61%) spot prices fell by $1/dmt d-o-d to $90/dmt CFR North China on 9 October 2026, compared with $91/dmt CFR China on 8 October, on an import-parity basis. Prices came under pressure from bearish market sentiment and subdued spot trading, while the implementation of metallurgical coke price cuts added to concerns over steelmakers’ profitability and raw material demand.

Some sellers withheld offers following the latest price decline, preferring to wait for a potential market recovery rather than accept lower bids. However, limited spot activity and cautious procurement by Chinese steel mills continued to weigh on market momentum.

Declining iron ore port inventories offered some support to prices by indicating a gradual tightening in available stocks. However, this has yet to translate into stronger buying interest, as mills remain focused on controlling procurement costs amid persistent operating losses. If margins fail to improve, some steelmakers may reduce production, potentially lowering iron ore consumption. The timing and extent of any production cuts remain uncertain, leaving the demand outlook subdued.

Meanwhile, China’s first round of metallurgical coke price cuts officially took effect on 1 October, following announcements by two leading steel mills to reduce their purchase prices. The move ended an upward trend in coke prices that had persisted since mid-August, signalling a shift in raw material market sentiment.

Further downside pressure on coke prices may emerge following China’s National Day holiday, which ran from 1-7 October. Lower coke costs could offer some relief to steelmakers’ production margins, but the impact on iron ore demand will depend on whether improved cost conditions are sufficient to stabilise mill profitability and support higher operating rates. Until procurement activity strengthens or production cuts become clearer, iron ore prices may remain under pressure.

DCE futures edge up slightly amid cautious market sentiment

January 2027 iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) edged up by RMB 1.5/tonne (t) ($0.22/t) to RMB 684/t ($102/t) on 9 October 2026, amid cautious sentiment and limited trading momentum. Uncertainty over post-holiday restocking in China, subdued steel demand and weak mill margins continued to cap gains. Market direction will depend on procurement activity and movements in physical iron ore prices in the coming days.