China: Iron ore imports remain resilient in Jul’25 despite softer steel demand

• Iron ore imports reach 104.62 mnt in July
• Imports may rise in August ahead of peak construction season

China imported 104.62 million tonnes (mnt) of iron ore in July 2025, reflecting a modest 1.3% decline month-on-month (m-o-m) against 105.95 mnt in June this year. Import volumes have been above the 100-mnt mark for the third consecutive month. Imports also stood 1.8% higher y-o-y against 102.81 mnt, signaling underlying resilience in raw material demand despite ongoing uncertainty in steel consumption.

The July data indicates a market balancing act, where logistical challenges and cautious procurement coexist with structurally steady demand. The marginal dip from June’s volumes likely stems from temporary factors and recent geopolitical developments, rather than structural weakness.

With many mills prioritising overseas orders amid firm export demand, fresh domestic restocking took a backseat. This helped sustain import levels even as domestic demand for steel remained under pressure.

Factors governing ore imports

• Scheduled buying adjustments: A large portion of iron ore imported in July was likely booked earlier in Q2. With many miners front-loading exports in June to meet quarterly targets, buyers in China had already stocked up. This shift naturally resulted in a slightly lower import number in July not due to a drop in demand, but because of timing and shipping cycle adjustments. Moreover, the recent Politburo meeting fell short on expectations, which dampened prices this month.
• Disruption from Typhoon Wipha: Weather disruptions in July-including Typhoon Wipha, delayed several shipments and slowed port operations. These logistical hurdles caused some cargoes to spill over into early August clearances, mildly affecting July volumes.
• Export push absorbs existing stocks: With steel exports holding strong in July, despite global protectionist headwinds, Chinese mills may have focused on converting existing iron ore inventories into finished steel for overseas markets. This strategic use of stockpiles helped fulfil export commitments without needing to rush to secure new imports, explaining the steady, rather than spiking, import figures for the month.

Outlook:

Iron ore imports may increase in August due to delayed July cargoes and mills preparing for the peak construction season. Stable prices might encourage buying, but cautious restocking is expected without new policy support from Beijing. A stronger rebound is likely in late August or early September if infrastructure or housing measures are announced.