- Coke production inches up 1% y-o-y in May’26
- Renewable growth caps thermal coal demand
China’s industrial raw coal production from enterprises above designated size reached 400 million tonnes (mnt) in May 2026, increasing by around 4% m-o-m and declining 1.7% y-o-y, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The average daily output stood at 12.81 mnt. During January-May 2026, cumulative raw coal production totalled 1.98 billion tonnes, marking a marginal 0.3% y-o-y decline.
The explosion at the Liushenyu coal mine in Qinyuan county, Changzhi city, on the night of 22 May has emerged as China’s deadliest mining disaster in nearly 17 years, with authorities confirming more than 80 fatalities and launching an extensive safety review across Shanxi’s coal belt. In Shanxi, China’s top coal-producing province, some coking coal mines suspended operations again on 11 June after only a few days of resumption, underscoring the uneven pace of coal supply recovery as Beijing’s recent crackdown on illegal mining activities continued to reverberate through the sector, Mysteel learnt.
The decline reflects continued production discipline, supply-side adjustments, and efforts to balance domestic coal availability with market demand conditions.
Coke production records moderate growth on stable steel demand
China’s national coke production reached 42.72 mnt in May 2026, increasing around 3% m-o-m and 1.1% y-o-y. From January to May, total coke output stood at 210.37 mnt, up 1.9% y-o-y. The growth was supported by steady downstream demand from the steel sector, although production growth remained controlled amid constrained raw material and market conditions.
Power generation growth accelerates on strong energy demand
Power generation by utilities above the designated size reached 784.3 billion kWh in May 2026, rising 4.2% y-o-y, with growth accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared with April. The average daily power generation stood at 25.3 billion kWh.
During January-May 2026, cumulative industrial power generation reached 3,912.9 billion kWh, up 3.6% y-o-y, indicating stronger electricity demand from industrial activity.
Energy mix shifts as renewables gain momentum
Thermal power generation growth moderated in May, increasing 2.1% y-o-y, with growth slowing by 1 percentage point from April. Meanwhile, renewable sources recorded stronger momentum, with hydropower rising 13%, solar power increasing 12.1%, and nuclear power growing 5% after a decline in April. Wind power also returned to positive growth at 0.5% y-o-y.
The changing generation mix highlights stronger renewable contribution and a gradual shift in China’s power supply structure.
Outlook
China’s coal market is expected to remain balanced in the near term, with controlled domestic coal production and stable coke demand providing support. However, slower thermal power growth and accelerating renewable generation may limit coal demand growth.
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