China will reduce production during the winter season and as per the data and information shared during conference, China mill owners are expected to maintain capacity utilization below 50% (Nov’17 – Mar’18) from present 80%
According to this, we may see 45 MnT Production cut in crude steel in next five months.
China export volume will continue to remain low due to better domestic realization. As per the present custom data; China export recorded at 48MnT (Jan-Jul’17) which is down by 28% y-o-y.
Overall steel demand in Q4 2017 will continue to be down. The infrastructure especially the construction activity is the only factor for the demand for steel in China.
| City | 2+26 Steel Capacity | 2+26 Crude Steel Capacity | Heating Season (5 Months) Crude Steel Production Cut |
| Beijing | 150 | 160 | 22.67 |
| Tianjin | 5,585 | 1,495 | 211.79 |
| Hebei | 32,263 | 25,005 | 3,542.38 |
| Shanxi | 875 | 878 | 124.38 |
| Shandong | 4,525 | 3,554 | 503.48 |
| Henan | 1,667 | 1,145 | 162.21 |
| Total | 45,065 | 32,237 | 4,566.91 |
Qty in 10KT
Provisional Data
Source: SDIC, SteelMInt
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