The billet imports in China during Nov ’20 broadly remained unchanged as Oct ’20 and recorded at 1.53 mn t. Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, India, Oman, and Indonesia stood as the predominant exporters during the period under consideration.
Countries cut export allocations as domestic demand recovers
Imports from India plunged by 41%. Since Jul ’20, the Indian imports in China are posing a downward trend. However, it was foreseeable that as the domestic demand will improve, Indian mills limited their export allocations. Between, Jul-Nov ’20, Indian imports in China have fallen a by CAGR of 30%, from 0.66 mn t in Jul ’20 to 0.16 mn t in Nov ‘20.
Also, according to our analysis, the billet imports from ASEAN, CIS, and GCC nations were reasonable than Indian imports, and hence registered an m-o-m rise in Nov ’20. For instance, the offerings from Indian mills were hovering at $430/t, FoB in Sep ’20. While CIS offerings were at $410-415/t, FoB Black Sea levels.
On the other hand, Chinese domestic billet prices were seen at par with global prices. For instance, during Sep ’20, the Russian billet imports were priced at $504-507/t, including duty and taxes. While average domestic billet prices in China during Sep ‘20, were RMB 3,399/t ($508/t) ex-Tangshan, including 13% VAT.
Note: For Analysis, Sep ’20 prices are considered assuming that bookings done in September would have landed during November in China.
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