- US tariffs trigger regional premiums, scrap volatility
- Political unrest in Middle East disrupts supply chains
The BIR World Mirror on Non-Ferrous Metals–July 2025, which provides an overview of global market trends, highlighting key regional developments, has given indications that US tariffs, trade shifts, and supply chain disruptions are key factors that will keep the non-ferrous metals space uncertain in 2025.
China
Ma Hongchang, a regional recycling expert from China, said the country posted a 5.3% y-o-y increase in recycled non-ferrous metal production in Q1 2025 to 4.88 mnt. Recycled copper and aluminium saw gains of 4.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Imports of recycled copper and aluminium also grew, with copper rising 2.8% and aluminium surging 30%. However, low processing fees for copper concentrates and a decrease in scrap lead-acid batteries are tightening raw material supplies. Larger enterprises maintained stable orders, but small and medium-sized businesses faced significant declines. US tariffs have further impacted raw material imports.
Shen Dong, board member of OmniSource Corporation (US), highlighted the positive impact of the recent China-US joint statement to cut reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, revitalizing trade between the two nations. This move has benefited various industries, including non-ferrous metals. Additionally, China’s new national standard for black mass imports, effective 1 July, which significantly affect the scrap lithium-ion battery market. Meanwhile, new energy vehicle sales in China surged by 44% in the first five months of 2025, driving increased EV battery production.
United States
Rick Dobkin, board member of Shapiro Metals (US), indicated that economic news in the US was of a mixed nature. Despite President Trump’s promise of clarity on trade and tariff agreements by July, little has been settled, and trading partners are exploring alternatives. Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on copper, creating significant price discrepancies between LME and Comex.
The recently passed tax and spending Bill has provided some relief but has also cut funding for medical care. Economic indicators show low inflation and strong employment, though GDP growth remains sluggish. Meanwhile, demand for recycled metals is steady, with a flood of aluminium and copper imports, driven by high prices. However, tariffs have caused regional premiums to spike, while demand for secondary aluminium scrap and ingot prices remains flat.
India
Anirudha Agrawal, board member of Manaksia Aluminium (India), said that the Indians economy remains robust, with a 7.4% GDP growth in Q1 2025, outperforming market expectations. Aluminium wrought scrap prices have risen following US tariff announcements, but primary aluminium prices dropped by $60-80/t for the July quarter.
Copper scrap demand is strong, and the market is well-supplied. India’s lead production is growing at over 5% annually, with balanced scrap availability. Scrap prices are up due to increased local demand and low LME rates. Additionally, rising antimony prices, driven by geopolitical factors, are affecting lead-acid battery costs and prompting design changes in the industry.
Middle East
Rami Shahrour, board member of Sharmetal Trading Co. S.A.R.L. (Lebanon), said that non-ferrous metals like aluminium, copper, and lead are becoming increasingly vital in the Middle East as countries focus on industrial growth, environmental sustainability, and reducing reliance on metal imports. However, political tensions, especially the conflict with Iran, have disrupted trade across the Gulf, with rising shipping and insurance costs.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key route for scrap metal exports, has become riskier, prompting countries to explore alternative, slower, and more costly routes. In response, Gulf nations are investing in local aluminium recycling and smelting plants, including those focused on “green aluminium,” to strengthen domestic industries and reduce reliance on imports.
United Kingdom
Gareth Hyams from APM Metals Ltd (GBR), shared that the UK commodities market has seen consistent strength over the past two months, especially for copper and aluminium, partly due to revised tariff agreements and a stronger US dollar.
However, while demand remains strong, a shortage of available physical material has led to tighter margins and more competition among merchants. Environmental export restrictions and US tariffs on copper further complicate trade.
In the construction sector, activity outside London is improving, though output remains subdued overall. On a positive note, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s green levy cuts, which include reducing electricity costs by 25% and offering heavy industry discounts, could benefit domestic manufacturing, particularly in aluminium and steel, and help alleviate rising operational costs.
Canada
Sebastien Perron, General Delegate of CNA METALS GROUP (USA), said ongoing tension between Canada and the US, with the Trump administration applying pressure through measures like withdrawing from digital service tax negotiations. While there are threats of new tariffs on metals, they currently apply only to semi-finished and finished products, leaving recycled metals tariff-free. However, recycled material flows in Canada are declining, and the Purchasing Managers’ Index shows significant contraction in factory activity, signalling potential challenges ahead as Canada faces a slowing manufacturing sector.
Mexico
Alejandro Jaramillo, Vice-President of Glorem SC (MEX), said Mexico’s non-ferrous scrap market is facing significant volatility due to fluctuating currency, trade threats, and changing demand in the automotive and recycling sectors. The Mexican peso has been unstable, affecting export competitiveness. While the domestic automotive sector showed optimism with a 4.8% increase in June vehicle production, exports to the US have declined by 2.8% in the first half of 2025.
The scrap market, especially for cast aluminium, saw tightness and price surges as consumers rushed to secure materials, but these price hikes were short-lived. Additionally, increased imports of aluminium scrap, originally destined for the US, are now being redirected to Mexico.
Eastern Europe
Natallia Zholud, Board Member of TRM Group (POL), observed that Eastern Europe has been facing a downturn in metal recycling activity this summer, which is unusual for the region. Factors contributing to this slowdown include low metal availability, a strong rouble (78 to the US dollar), weak export demand, and a new VAT payment procedure for semi-finished copper products in Russia, implemented on 1 July. While some market participants are optimistic, uncertainty around the procedure has caused delays.
Additionally, although no new sanctions have been imposed on Russia since President Trump’s return to the White House, his consideration of “very strict” sanctions led to a minor drop in the Moscow stock exchange. The EU’s 16th pack of sanctions targeting aluminium has disrupted secondary aluminium exports, causing bottlenecks in logistics, though the exact scale of the impact is difficult to measure.
Germany and Poland
Murat Bayram, board member of European Metal Recycling Limited (GBR), noted that Germany is facing near-zero economic growth in 2025 due to weak exports and global uncertainty, though investments aim to stabilize the outlook. Meanwhile, Poland continues to show strong growth with easing inflation and loosening monetary policy.
The recycling market has been experiencing high volatility, with copper prices shifting drastically due to US policy changes. Geopolitical conflicts are increasing freight costs, while new regulations complicate imports and strain liquidity. A meaningful market recovery is not expected before Q4.
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