- Trade policies, tariffs disrupting global scrap trade flows
- Secondary copper to exceed 40% of global consumption
At the BIR World Recycling Convention and Exhibition in Bangkok (27-28 October 2025), industry leaders from recycling, trading and manufacturing stressed how volatile trade, evolving policy and data analytics are reshaping the non-ferrous metals sector. The session highlighted how smarter use of data and technology is helping stakeholders navigate a world of rapid regulatory and market change.
Trade-flow turbulence, policy pressures
Opening the session, Paul Coyte, President of the Non-Ferrous Division (Hayes Metals, New Zealand), compared metal flows to shifting trade winds:
“It’s really hard to work out the future direction of wind flow if you don’t have accurate information. Similarly, in our businesses, without accurate information, it’s really hard to spot future trends.”
Coyte noted that market players are grappling with rapid regulatory adjustments — from Malaysia’s Operation Metal and Thailand’s stricter import regulations to China’s enhanced scrap inspections. Meanwhile, US tariffs and proposed European restrictions on secondary copper exports are adding uncertainty, reshaping logistics and influencing price structures.
Industry participants agreed that these measures have created a fragmented market where access to accurate, real-time trade data is critical for risk management and forecasting.
Rising share of secondary copper in global consumption
Jessica Fung, Head of Consulting at Project Blue (UK), presented data showing that while global secondary copper trade appears stable on paper, adjusted “copper-equivalent” calculations reveal steady growth. Her analysis indicates that secondary copper currently accounts for about 36% of global copper consumption, with the share projected to exceed 40% within a decade.
Asia is at the forefront of this expansion, with Japan and South Korea increasing the share of scrap input in smelters from below 10% to nearly 25% over the past two decades. “Announcements of trade policies, even before implementation, have an immediate and measurable effect on market flows and pricing,” Fung cautioned, citing how US copper imports spiked ahead of scheduled tariff enforcement.
Her presentation reinforced the role of secondary copper as a stabilising pillar of the global metal supply chain amid resource constraints and energy transition-driven demand.
Digital transformation: the new trading frontier
Stuart Kagan, Co-founder and CEO of Buddy (New Zealand), explored how technology is beginning to modernise the traditional metals trading ecosystem. He observed that while digitalisation has reshaped many industries, metal trading still relies heavily on long-standing personal relationships.
“Relationships and technology are not mutually exclusive; they can work beautifully together,” Kagan said.
Building resilience through unity and circularity
Inge Hofkens, Chief Operations Officer of Aurubis AG (Germany), stressed the need for solidarity among recyclers and primary producers in navigating geopolitical and economic turbulence. She warned that diverging regional policies — where some nations close borders while others liberalise trade — could threaten the global circular economy.
“If we as industry players are fragmented and not united, others will define our future. If we stand together, we will define our future ourselves,” Hofkens asserted.
Highlighting Aurubis’ new multi-metal plant in the United States, she described it as a model of responsible primary production combined with strategic recycling, designed to convert complex scrap into refined metals and support local circularity.
Europe’s dilemma, global market friction
In a panel discussion chaired by Sebastien Perron of CNA Metals (US), panellists examined the potential impact of EU restrictions on secondary copper and aluminium exports. Jessica Fung noted that while eastern Europe shows growing demand, western Europe’s slower growth and limited refining capacity are encouraging more exports to Asia.
Albrecht Vanhoutte of Galloo (FRA/BEL) observed that Chinese tariffs on US scrap have redirected more European flows toward China. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Katrakis of Galloo warned that trade barriers risk increasing inefficiencies and costs.
Fung concluded, “The implementation of trade barriers can distort the market in terms of flows and pricing. From a big-picture perspective, it adds a lot of friction.”
Hofkens added that while security concerns are driving such policies, “markets will always find a way themselves.”
Conclusion
The BIR conference highlighted that data intelligence, digital transformation, and cross-industry collaboration are becoming essential for navigating the future of non-ferrous recycling. As policy landscapes evolve and trade flows realign, smarter information and collective action will define who thrives in this new circular, technology-enabled era of global metal trade.
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