- EU waste shipment proposals threaten established recycled steel export flows from May’27
- Freight disruptions, weak steel demand, rising costs influence scrap procurement globally
Global recycled steel markets experienced mixed conditions in Q3CY’26 as geopolitical tensions, freight costs and trade policies influenced prices and trade flows. Stronger Turkish demand supported European and US export prices towards September, while weak steel consumption, high financing costs and logistical disruptions constrained several markets.
The European Commission’s proposed restrictions on recycled steel exports to selected non-OECD countries emerged as a major concern. Low water levels across European waterways and disruptions in the Black Sea and Middle East further increased shipping costs.
Region-wise insights
Europe
Germany: Denis Reuter of TSR Recycling GmbH and Co. KG, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, reported continued pressure from weak construction, mechanical engineering and automotive demand. Steel demand remained at “crisis level” around mid-year, restraining scrap consumption. Low Rhine water levels increased transport costs, while high energy costs limited industrial scrap generation. Q4 recovery could be gradual.
United Kingdom: Tom Bird of Enicor, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, reported stronger market conditions supported by Turkish demand and limited billet supplies from Southeast Asia and the Middle East. HMS prices delivered to Turkiye rose from $360-370/tonne (t) in July to around $410/t. Low river levels, higher fuel costs and strong US domestic demand supported export prices. Fires at recycling facilities also highlighted lithium-ion battery-related safety risks.
Bird noted that the European Commission’s draft list, published on 18 September, did not propose authorising India, Egypt and Morocco to receive metals under the current plan. Final decisions could reshape established supply chains from May 2027.
Scandinavia: Mogens Bach Christensen of H.J. Hansen Genvindingsindustri A/S, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, said activity recovered in August and September after the summer slowdown. Turkish HMS 80:20 prices reached $390-400/t CFR by September-end. Higher freight costs limited suppliers’ returns, while proposed EU restrictions could create regional surpluses and weaken recycler margins.
Turkiye
Abhijeet Mahanta of Stelaris Resources AG, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, highlighted high financing costs and weak manufacturing activity. The central bank’s policy rate remained at 37%, while commercial lending rates reached around 49%, encouraging just-in-time purchasing. The lira weakened to around 48.30/$ in August and early September, increasing import costs.
Deep-sea HMS 80:20 prices fell from $379/t CFR in early July to $360/t mid-month before recovering to $375/t. Imports rose 12.7% year on year to 1.66 million tonnes in July, including a 57.7% increase in US-origin imports to 440,840 tonnes. August imports declined 15.7% month on month to 1.4 million tonnes. Stronger rebar sales and limited competitive billet supplies supported September price gains, although financing costs and freight remained concerns.
United States
George Adams of SA Recycling, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, reported a September rally supported by seasonal restocking and stronger mill demand. Turkish demand lifted East Coast prices by $24/t, pushing HMS 80:20 above $400/t and shredded scrap above $420/t. US exporters sold a record eight bulk cargoes to Turkiye, raising concerns among domestic mills over feedstock availability.
Domestic mills operated at around 80% capacity utilisation, supported by reshoring and data-centre construction. Dealers anticipated possible price increases of $20-50/t by December as seasonal collections slowed, although energy costs and geopolitical risks remained headwinds.
Asia
Michael Gaylard of SIMS Ltd, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, identified volatile ocean freight rates as a major influence on Asian trade, with the Iran and Ukraine conflicts increasing bunker costs and disrupting shipping routes.
China‘s steel production declined 3.1% during January-August, while August finished steel exports rose 6.8% to 10.16 million tonnes (mnt). South Korean exports to the US reached 2.97 million net tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, up 52% y-o-y.
Bangladesh continued importing scrap but remained price-sensitive amid high freight costs and weak construction activity. In India, higher coking-related costs and improved containerised prices encouraged renewed import interest. Bulk enquiries emerged for both coasts, although no deals had been concluded at the time of reporting.
Japan: Ted Taya of Shinsei Scrap Co. Ltd, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, reported declining domestic scrap prices, with H2-grade material falling below JPY 50,000/t in most areas by August. August scrap exports fell 17.7% m-o-m to 422,982 t. Crude steel production totalled 6.664 mnt, down 3.9% m-o-m but up 0.4% y-o-y. Automotive and machinery demand remained relatively firm.
Middle East
Moosa Kazim of Al-Qaryan Group, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, said GCC markets remained sensitive to raw material availability, freight disruptions and cautious finished-steel demand. Turkish HMS 80:20 prices recovered from $369/t CFR in July to $403/t in late September. Saudi Arabia introduced dedicated HMS 1&2 price indices for Jeddah, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province in July, improving domestic price transparency.
Expanding regional EAF capacity is creating opportunities for recyclers supplying consistent, processed and traceable material, although imported raw materials remain exposed to shipping and insurance costs.
South Africa
Quintin Starkey of the Metal Recyclers Association of South Africa, board member of the BIR Ferrous Division, reported pressure from uncertainty over the Price Preference System (PPS), weak international prices and rising steel imports. A 25% ferrous discount under the PPS and a 20% export duty continued to leave recyclers below international market parity.
Crude steel production declined approximately 13.9% y-o-y during January-July, while primary steel imports rose around 14%. The International Trade Administration Commission proposed a ZAR 3,797 processing fee per waste and recycled steel permit application from April 2027, compared with ZAR 339 for a general export permit. Uncertainty over ArcelorMittal South Africa’s ownership and recapitalisation also persisted.
Outlook
Global recycled steel markets enter Q4 with divergent trends. Stronger Turkish demand, US seasonal restocking and limited alternative billet supplies could support export prices, while weak German demand, falling Japanese prices and South African policy constraints underline the uneven recovery.
Proposed EU export restrictions from May 2027 could redirect trade and create regional supply imbalances. Freight costs, geopolitical tensions, currency movements and alternative metallics will continue influencing procurement. A sustained recovery will depend on stronger steel demand, reliable logistics and predictable trade policies.
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