- European scrap prices face downward pressure
- India maintains steady demand despite import uncertainty
The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR), in its October 2026 World Mirror on Stainless Steel & Special Alloys report, highlighted contrasting market trends across major regions. European stainless steel scrap demand and prices are expected to weaken in Q4 2026, while the US and Asian markets are showing comparatively resilient prospects.
Europe: Scrap demand and prices likely to decline
European stainless steel market participants anticipate a difficult fourth quarter, with the outlook for 2027 remaining uncertain. Weak demand is expected to weigh on scrap consumption and prices, while uncertainty over electricity and gas costs continues to challenge mills. Customer buying patterns are also unpredictable, with some demand shifting towards North America and Asia.
Italy has demonstrated greater resilience than the broader European market. However, scrap procurement remains selective, with purchases largely driven by immediate production requirements.
BIR highlights challenging prospects for 2027
Joost van Kleef, Chairman of the BIR Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee and representative of Oryx Stainless B.V., highlighted the uncertain outlook for Europe’s stainless steel industry.
Speaking about discussions at the SMR conference in Offenbach, Germany, in late September, van Kleef noted that 2026 had been relatively satisfactory for the industry. The introduction of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) regime in January and safeguard measures implemented in July helped improve order intake for EU mills as finished steel imports declined. However, overall demand recorded little or no growth.
Market participants anticipate a weak fourth quarter, while the outlook for 2027 remains unfavourable. The recent decline in nickel prices and continued imports of stainless steel slabs have added to uncertainty. Stainless steel scrap demand and prices are expected to decline significantly in Q4 2026.
European mills also continue to face uncertainty over energy costs and the possibility of customers shifting demand towards North America and Asia.
US: Stainless steel scrap market maintains cautious optimism
The US recycled stainless steel market is entering the final quarter of 2026 with cautious optimism. Stainless steel melt shop production increased 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q2 2026, raising expectations that the improvement could support steady domestic demand through year-end.
Doug Kramer of Spectrum Alloys LLC (USA) said: “We remain cautiously optimistic about the rest of 2026, although it is still too early to say how strong the finish will be. Heading into 2027, sustained domestic buying and continued export demand would give collectors and processors a firmer footing. Those are the signs we will be looking for before calling the improvement a lasting one.”
US manufacturing activity has also shown signs of improvement. The Institute for Supply Management reported an eighth consecutive month of expansion in August, although the pace of new order growth slowed. Investment related to artificial intelligence (AI) continues to support activity, while higher borrowing costs and uneven industrial conditions could limit further gains.
Despite relatively healthy domestic mill demand, recyclers on the US West Coast face high transportation costs when shipping material to mills in eastern regions. Recycled stainless steel exports totalled approximately 167,000 tonnes during January–July 2026, up 21% y-o-y but 10% below the corresponding period in 2024. Overseas demand remains weaker than domestic demand, with export prices struggling to match domestic levels and competition from local and regional suppliers limiting market opportunities.
Nickel price movements remain another key factor. Ample availability weighed on prices in late September despite supply constraints in Indonesia, while additional ore shipments from the Philippines eased supply pressures. Indonesian production curtailments remain a potential risk, and their impact on recycled stainless steel competitiveness will depend on subsequent raw material price movements and mill purchasing decisions.
Asia: India sustains demand amid import uncertainty
Across Asia, stainless steel mills and scrap buyers remain sensitive to currency fluctuations, raw material competition and inventory costs. South Korea’s stainless steel scrap demand remained stable in Q3 2026, while India continued to show relative strength, supported by steady finished steel demand and rising production.
In India, rupee volatility has discouraged purchases of imported scrap, prompting buyers to procure material largely on a need basis. Domestic scrap remains attractive because of shorter lead times, competitive pricing and favourable payment terms.
Ritesh Maheshwari of Shabro International Pte Ltd (IND) said: India’s stainless steel market continues to witness steady demand for finished products and raw materials, alongside rising production. Rupee volatility is making buyers cautious about imported scrap, encouraging need-based procurement. Domestic scrap remains preferred due to shorter lead times, competitive pricing and favourable payment terms.
Proposed export authorisation requirements under the European Union’s Waste Shipment Regulation have also raised concerns over the availability of European scrap for India and other non-OECD countries in 2027.
Middle East and Africa: Industrial activity supports market stability
The Middle East’s stainless steel and special alloys market remained relatively stable in Q3 2026, supported by activity across oil and gas, petrochemicals, desalination and infrastructure. However, shipping and freight costs continued to influence market conditions.
In Africa, stainless steel consumption remained concentrated in key industrial and infrastructure markets. Mining, energy, construction and fabrication supported demand, while reliance on imports and elevated logistics costs continued to pose challenges.
Superalloys: Aerospace demand provides underlying support
The superalloy scrap market remained stable, with adequate material availability across most grades and mills maintaining cautious inventory management. Inconel 718 continued to face pressure as available supply exceeded current melt demand.
The aerospace sector remained an important source of underlying demand, supported by substantial order books. However, supply-chain constraints and manufacturing bottlenecks continued to affect production schedules and the pace of raw material consumption.
Outlook: Regional market conditions remain divergent
The BIR report points to contrasting prospects for the global stainless steel scrap market. Europe faces weakening demand and potential price declines, while improving US melt shop production supports cautious optimism. In Asia, India’s relatively firm market provides support, although currency volatility continues to influence imported scrap procurement.
Going forward, exchange-rate movements, freight costs, trade regulations and cautious purchasing are likely to shape regional scrap flows. In Europe, uncertainty surrounding energy costs, nickel prices and finished steel imports could continue to weigh on market sentiment into 2027.
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