- Rebar prices rise w-o-w on recovery in project sector demand
- HRC market stabilises as order inflows, export sentiments improve
- Inventory drawdown, tightening supplies to support prices in August
Morning Brief: BigMint’s India steel composite index remained flat w-o-w, as assessed on the week ended 24 July 2026. The index stayed stable, thanks to a much-awaited uptick in long steel prices following a recovery in order bookings from the infrastructure and project construction sectors. The renewal of demand momentum in the project sector provided support to construction steel prices, while flat steel weakened marginally w-o-w. With rising momentum in the domestic steel market, prices would seem to have bottomed out.
In a reversal of trends compared with recent weeks, the long steel index gained 0.7% w-o-w while the flats composite index weakened by 0.6%, with HRC dropping 0.7% on the week on soft trade sentiments amid liquidity pressure. However, consistent demand from OEMs and a marginal improvement in export outlook provide support to HRC.
Highlights of price movements
BF-rebar prices increase w-o-w: BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for rebar (IS 1786 Fe 550D, 12–32 mm, BF route) stood at INR 48,700/t as of 24 July, up INR 800/t w-o-w from INR 47,900/t recorded on 17 July. Prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
The recent improvement in project and infrastructure order bookings at discounted price levels suggests that the sharp correction in BF-route rebar prices may be nearing an end. The rebar index declined by over 4 percentage points till the third week of this month compared with 1.6 percentage points for HRC. Major producers have secured project orders over the past few weeks, with booking visibility extending to around 15-20 days. This has reduced the need for suppliers to offer attractive price discounts.
Although demand remained moderate last week, market sentiment improved as several mills announced plans for routine maintenance shutdowns in August, while a few producers are expected to divert capacity to other products. These developments are likely to reduce rebar availability and lower inventory levels during August.
Distributor sources BigMint spoke to remained optimistic about near-term price stability due to the anticipated tightening in supply.
IF rebar prices rise in most markets: IF-route rebar prices increased w-o-w across most markets last week, as enquiries and order bookings improved in the latter half of the week, particularly in the central and eastern regions. In the western region, heavy rains affected construction activity and mills had to resort to discounts after raising prices recently. Inventory levels on average were assessed at 10-15 days, with order booking visibility pointing to requirement-driven trades.
Flat steel market stable, downside risks ease: BigMint’s bi-weekly benchmark assessment for HRC (IS 2062, Gr E250, 2.5–8 mm/CTL) was at INR 57,800/t on 24 July, unchanged from the assessment recorded on 17 July. Meanwhile, the benchmark assessment for CRC (IS 513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) was at INR 64,900/t, down by INR 100/t w-o-w from INR 65,000/t recorded on 17 July. These assessments are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
Procurement continued to be driven by immediate requirements rather than inventory replenishment, reflecting cautious sentiment. Tight working capital availability prevented many traders and service centres from undertaking bulk purchases. The absence of widespread restocking kept transaction volumes subdued despite relatively stable prices.
A trader said, “OEMs are still buying, even if nothing else is moving. That is the only real support the market has right now.”
While spot market activity remains constrained by liquidity pressures, healthy project orders and steady export commitments are supporting mill pricing discipline. The reduction in aggressive discounts indicates that downside risks have eased considerably.
The domestic HRC market is showing early signs of stabilisation as integrated steelmakers report healthy order bookings from project and OEM customers at recently corrected prices. These bookings have improved production visibility for the next month. The CRC market outlook is more even optimistic due to positive automotive growth, allowing several producers to raise fresh project offer prices and reduce discounts.
Export sentiment improves: Steel export bookings by the primary mills remained comparatively healthy. Bulk HRC exports stood at 198,712 t as of 17 July, with an additional 93,402 t expected by the end of July, indicating continued demand for Indian steel. Steady demand from UAE and Oman has played a key role in keeping domestic prices stable. Without this support, the market would likely have ended up with a surplus due to a weak domestic trading environment.
HRC imports remain limited: Bulk HRC imports reached 152,538 t as of 17 July. South Korea, China and Indonesia remained the leading suppliers. A large share of these volumes continues to move under the ‘Advance Authorization’ scheme of the government, keeping their direct impact on the domestic trade market minimal. Despite the decrease in domestic HRC prices in July, the spread with landed imports remains significant.
Coking coal prices edge up: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines index (Fe 62%) increased by 1% w-o-w, with above-Fe 62% prices rising on tight supplies. On the other hand, imported coking coal prices rose by over $7/t w-o-w on CNF India basis. Meanwhile, BigMint’s domestic melting scrap price index edged up by INR 270/t w-o-w. Therefore, firm raw materials prices seem to be providing support to steel prices.
Outlook
As order books improve, several mills have started increasing rebar project offer prices by around INR 500-750/t, reflecting greater confidence in demand visibility. Planned maintenance shutdowns during August, along with production diversions by some integrated producers, are also expected to tighten availability and reinforce supply-side strain, thereby supporting prices. Improved order bookings in the HRC segment and healthy downstream performance are expected to support the market going forward.
Although overall consumption remains moderate and spot procurement continues to be largely need-based, improving project-led demand and the prospect of lower inventories are expected to support prices. BigMint expects steel prices to have bottomed out and the current positive momentum to continue into August, with prices expected to rise gradually.
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