Bangladesh: Cotton import forecast cut to 7.4 million bales for MY’27

• Weaker consumption outlook, RMG demand prompt cut
• RMG exports fall 2% y-o-y in FY’26, Jul exports also drop 2%

Bangladesh’s cotton imports are expected to remain under pressure in the 2026-27 marketing year (MY27), which began on 1 August, due to lower consumption, disruptions in yarn production and weak demand from the ready-made garment (RMG) sector. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its import forecast to 7.4 million bales from 7.6 million bales projected in June and July.

Weak RMG demand weighs on imports

The USDA estimated Bangladesh’s cotton imports at 7.2 million bales in MY’26, compared with 8.05 million bales in MY’25, 7.57 million bales in MY’24 and 7 million bales in MY’23. The report warned that logistics disruptions and broader economic instability could further weigh on imports.

Bangladesh’s RMG exports declined 1.64% to $38.7 billion in FY’26 from $39.35 billion a year earlier, with most major export destinations recording negative growth. In July of FY’27, exports fell 1.92% to $3.89 billion from $3.96 billion a year earlier.

Industry expects global trade to remain sluggish through the year amid weak economic conditions and prolonged geopolitical tensions. Bangladesh, the world’s largest cotton importer and second-largest RMG exporter, could take longer to return to peak operations and optimal lint utilisation.

Vietnam set to overtake Bangladesh

Vietnam is projected to become the largest cotton importer in MY’27 at 8.2 million bales, surpassing Bangladesh. China’s imports are forecast at 7 million bales, Pakistan’s at 5 million bales and India’s at 3 million bales. China, India, and Pakistan are also among the world’s top five cotton producers.

Brazil has emerged as Bangladesh’s largest single-country cotton supplier, surpassing India, while West Africa remains the primary source region.

Bangladesh’s domestic cotton production was estimated at around 153,000 bales from 45,000 hectares in MY’26, accounting for less than 2% of total consumption. Cotton cultivation is concentrated in Jashore, Jhenaidah, Kushtia, Chuadanga, Meherpur and Magura.

Global cotton production is projected at 117.3 million bales in MY’27, supported by larger crops in Brazil, Greece and Turkey.

Outlook

Bangladesh’s cotton imports are likely to remain subdued in MY’27 as weak RMG demand, yarn production disruptions and economic uncertainty weigh on consumption. Higher global production may improve availability, but a sustained recovery in Bangladesh’s textile sector could take time.