Australia’s coking coal exports to India fell to two years’ low in August at 3.19 million tonnes (mnt), whereas total exports dropped 23% y-o-y at 12.2 mnt, CoalMint data shows.
Australian coking coal prices, which fell by 63% in June-July ($240/t on FOB basis) from highs in March this year, continued the downtrend till the first week of August. However, from the second week, prices started recovering again to $270/t FOB in line with elevated thermal coal prices and traders opting for positional trading. However, this dampened buying sentiments from steel mills in the key importing countries.
Exports to India drop to 2-year-low
Qty in mnt
Australia’s coking coal exports to India dropped 15% m-o-m in August, the lowest in two years. Along with subdued export demand due to the export duty on steel, India’s domestic steel demand is also being affected due to recessionary trends in the global market.
Key economies like Europe have been dealing with inflationary pressure and a depreciating currency, while China is facing the combined impact of the property bubble, strict zero-COVID policy and a severe heatwave adversely impacting demand for white goods and automobiles as well as housing and infrastructure.
In addition, Indian mills have been booking cheaper met coke from China and Indonesia, impacting coking coal demand. India’s met coke imports in the last two months rose by 75% to 560,000 t against May-June, while imports edged up by 40% against the same period last year.
Australian coking coal exports to South Korea also dropped in August as a few steel mills are set to take maintenance breaks in October.
Interestingly, Australian shipments to Vietnam edged up by 53% m-o-m in August, as the Vietnamese mills restocked coking coal in anticipation of improvement in domestic steel demand as the government has taken a number of measures to boost public investment spending to boost work on major projects.
Port wise export
Qty in mnt
Company-wise exports
Qty in mnt
The largest coking coal exporter, BHP, exported a quantity of 3.65 mnt of coking coal in August followed by Moranbah North cc and Anglo American.
Outlook
Australian coking coal exports are expected to be rangebound in the coming months in the wake of subdued global steel demand.
As far as India goes, cheaper availability of imported met coke may impact Australian coking coal exports. Australian shipments may fall between October-December due to the third La-Nina event in Australia, which is likely to hamper coal mining and dispatches of coal.
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