- Total coal exports reach 116.58 mnt in January-July
- Indonesia retains competitive edge in Indian market
Australia’s non-coking (thermal) coal exports continued to outperform last year’s levels during the first seven months of 2026, supported by resilient demand from North Asia despite weaker purchases from China and limited buying from India.
Exports totalled 116.58 mnt during January-July 2026, compared with 111.35 mnt during the corresponding period of 2025, representing a 4.7% y-o-y increase. Although shipments moderated to 16.94 mnt in July following June’s exceptionally strong 21.09 mnt, cumulative exports remained comfortably ahead of last year.
North Asia accounts for 85% of Australian exports
The most significant trend during 2026 has been the continued concentration of Australian thermal coal exports into North Asia.
Japan retained its position as Australia’s largest thermal coal customer, increasing imports by almost 2.6 mnt year on year. South Korea recorded the strongest growth, with imports surging 84%, while Taiwan also significantly increased purchases.
In contrast, China’s imports declined by 4.6 mnt, reflecting weaker buying after exceptionally strong procurement in 2025. Even so, China remained Australia’s second-largest export market.
Collectively, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan absorbed over 84% of Australia’s thermal coal exports during January-July 2026, reinforcing the country’s growing dependence on North Asian demand.
The market share analysis illustrates that Australia’s export growth is being driven not by China, but by strengthening demand from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. South Korea’s rapid increase in market share is particularly noteworthy, while India’s share remained negligible despite being one of the world’s largest thermal coal importers.
Newcastle dominates Australian thermal coal exports
Australian coal exports through major east coast ports reflecting weaker export demand and lower vessel loadings across most terminals. Newcastle, the largest exporting port, shipped 12.1 mnt, falling 22.8% m-o-m in Jul’26, while Abbot Point exports declined to 1.46 mnt, down 19% m-o-m.
Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) recorded the sharpest decline among major ports, with shipments dropping 45% m-o-m to 0.54 mnt, while Brisbane exports fell 19.3% m-o-m to 0.47 mnt. In contrast, Gladstone posted a recovery, with exports rising 12.2% m-o-m to 1.95 mnt, and Port Kembla recorded the strongest growth, increasing 27% m-o-m and to 0.44 mnt, albeit from a low base last year.
BigMint insight
Australia’s thermal coal export performance in 2026 reflects an important shift in regional demand rather than broad-based market growth.
Although cumulative exports increased by 4.7%, the composition of demand changed significantly. Japan strengthened its position as Australia’s largest thermal coal buyer, while South Korea emerged as the fastest-growing market and Taiwan continued to increase procurement. At the same time, China’s imports moderated from last year’s elevated levels, suggesting that Australia’s export growth is becoming increasingly dependent on a broader mix of North Asian utilities rather than a single destination.
India, meanwhile, remained largely absent from Australia’s thermal coal trade despite sustained electricity demand and periods of elevated coal-fired generation. This reinforces the divergence between Australian and Indonesian export markets, with Australian producers continuing to serve premium North Asian markets while Indonesian suppliers retain their dominance in South Asia.
Looking ahead, procurement trends in Japan, South Korea and China are likely to remain the principal determinants of Australian thermal coal export performance during the second half of 2026, while any recovery in Indian import demand is expected to favour Indonesian cargoes unless Australian coal becomes more competitive on a delivered-cost basis.
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