Australian premium hard coking coal prices have continued to surge this week, on strong demand in the ex-Chinese Asian markets amidst supply concerns for cargoes to be delivered in Jul-Aug’21.
However, market sources are expecting that buyers may retreat, as prices are moving up fast. Moreover, Indian buyers are not in a hurry to procure cargoes, as they are stocked up for Jun-Jul’21.
- Premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal (HCC) and 64 Mid Vol HCC grades are assessed at around $163.00/tonne (t) (+7.9% week-on-week) and $142.00/t (+5.8% w-o-w) FOB Hay Point, Australia.
- For Indian buyers, these prices amount to $188.15/t (+6.2% w-o-w) and $167.15/t (+4.2% w-o-w) respectively on CNF India basis.
- The Australia-India dry bulk freight rate is currently assessed at $25.15/t (-3.8% w-o-w) for delivery by Panamax vessel class.
The spot market saw firm bids for premium low-volatile coking coal, reflecting improved buying interest for such materials.
Sentiments remained bullish on healthy demand and concerns over potential supply tightness in the third quarter (Q3), with tradable levels for various premium coking coal brands, such as Peak Downs, Saraji and Goonyella, placed at above $160/t FoB Australia.
The highest firm bid was heard at $157/t FOB Australia for 75,000 t of low-volatile Peak Downs HCC, with Jul’21 laycan.
As per latest CoalMint reports, two new bookings have been concluded for PLV HCC cargoes with late Jun’21 laycan.
India Coking Coal Import Shipment Vessel Lineup
CoalMint’s latest vessel lineup data reveals that a total quantity of 2.71 million tonnes (mn t) of Australian coking coal is expected to reach various Indian ports by 17 Jun’21. The breakup is as follows:
| Ports | Quantity (t) |
| Dhamra (Odisha) | 935,148 |
| Ennore (Tamil Nadu) | 188,000 |
| Gangavaram (Visakhapatnam) | 280,162 |
| Haldia (West Bengal) | 273,430 |
| Jaigarh (Maharashtra) | 125,000 |
| Mormugao (Goa) | 315,417 |
| Mundra (Gujarat) | 165,000 |
| Paradip (Odisha) | 428,175 |
| TOTAL | 2,710,332 |
Stock positions at major ports in India
Total coking coal stocks at major Indian ports at the end of last week had increased to 6 mn t, up by 2.61% w-o-w against 5.85 mn t in the previous week.
Presently, coking coal stocks at Paradip port are at 1.76 mn t, down by 3.84% w-o-w; while inventory at Dhamra port is at 1.49 mn t, up 13.92% w-o-w.
Major Indian ports include Gangavaram, Paradip, Mundra, Vizag, Dhamra, Krishnapatnam, Kandla, Haldia, Navlakhi, Magdalla, Hazira, Karaikal, Tuticorin, Dahej, Goa, Jamnagar, Mangalore, Bhavnagar, Kakinada, Muldwaraka and Pipavav.
Outlook
The Indian market for spot buying of imported coking coal is presently seen as modest with buyers awaiting price clarity. Furthermore, Indian buyers are closely monitoring the worsened pandemic situation and largely holding back on seaborne procurement.
As a result, upside support for Australian coking coal prices remains limited as key coking coal-consuming companies are avoiding spot exposures in India, the world’s second-biggest coking coal importer.
Hence, Australian coking coal prices are largely anticipated to recede to lower levels amid persistent downward pressure from oversupply until China’s import ban on Australian coals is lifted.
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