- China demand steady but inventories cap upside
- CY’26 production guidance at 323-338 mnt
Rio Tinto’s iron ore output from its Pilbara operations in Western Australia stood at 89.7 million tonnes (mnt) in Q4CY’25, 6.7% higher q-o-q against 84.1 mnt in Q3CY’25. This was driven by strong restocking demand from China before the upcoming construction season. Y-o-Y, output rose by 4% against 86.5 mnt in Q3CY’24. Meanwhile, sales increased 8.3% q-o-q while rising 6.5% y-o-y.
Production momentum firm
On a full-year basis, Pilbara production was recorded at 327.3 mnt in CY’25, broadly flat y-o-y, as strong output from April onwards offset weather-led losses in Q1. Operational discipline across Gudai-Darri and core hubs lifted product availability, while execution of the revised product strategy continued to reduce lower-grade SP10 volumes. Consistent lump and fines supply from the Pilbara has been supportive for Chinese mills managing volatile margins.
All figures mentioned are on 100% basis, which means that the shipments include material transported from the Pilbara mines to the portside trading facility in China, which may not be sold onward by the group during the same period.
At the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC), pellet and concentrate sales softened in Q4CY’25, tracking lower production amid ongoing pit health challenges. Output declined to 2.2 mnt, down 14% y-o-y and 7% q-o-q. Full-year IOC shipments totaled around 9.3 mnt, down about 1% y-o-y, landing near the lower end of guidance.
Simandou fines production totaled 2.3 mnt (100% basis) in CY’25 (producing its first ore), with volumes expected to ramp up gradually as operation smoothens up.
China demand steady, supply balance tightens
China’s steel output held broadly stable in Q4, with iron ore prices averaging $106/dmt CFR China, up 4% q-o-q. However, rising port inventories, which climbed to around 166 mnt by end-December, tempered aggressive restocking. Rio Tinto achieved first shipment from the Simandou project in Guinea during Q4, a key milestone, though volumes remain modest during the commissioning phase.
Shipments increase on demand surge
Pilbara shipments on a 100% basis rose to 91.3 mnt in Q4CY’25, up 8% q-o-q and 7% y-o-y, reflecting strong rail and port outperformance as system constraints eased. For CY’25, shipments totaled 326.2 mnt, largely stable y-o-y (down ~1%), broadly in line with guidance, as a sharp rebound in H2 mitigated earlier disruptions.
Guidance in line with CY25
The miner has kept its CY’26 production guidance at 323-338 mnt; same as last year with Simandou expected to contribute 5-10 mnt.. Shipments will be affected by the weather, and progress in Pilbara depends on timely approvals for new mining areas. With limited capacity to handle additional weather delays, any further disruptions could impact overall performance.
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