Australia lifted its projections for iron ore output and
exports on Tuesday, defying concerns over the global economy as Asian demand
roars along. But it cut its forecast for coal output on a slow recovery from
natural disasters.
Exports of iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient, are seen at
449 million tonnes i.e. 40 percent of global trade in fiscal 2012, a 3 percent increase from an
earlier projection as Japanese and Chinese steel output expands rapidly.
Revenue from iron ore exports is seen rising even faster, by
26 percent to A$68 billion ($69 billion), as prices are declining only slowly
from their highs hit in early 2011, the Bureau of Resources and Energy
Economics said in a quarterly report on Tuesday.
“Chinese steel
consumption is rising and exports from countries like India are reducing
because they're using a lot more internally. So the pricing environment looks
relatively positive going forward,” said James Wilson, analyst at RBS Morgans.
But Australia's outlook for coking coal, another key steelmaking
ingredient, is more subdued as the sector may need until early calendar 2012 to
fully recover from floods.
Coking coal exports are seen at 156 million tonnes i.e. 55 percent of global trade in fiscal
2012, a 5 percent dip from an earlier forecast but up 11 percent on the
previous year's exports.
Still, the cut in coking coal forecasts is unlikely to cause
major market ripples as the central bank repeatedly warned the sector was
recovering from floods and cyclones slower than previously estimated.
“I don't think that the announcement of a cut will
have an impact on prices. I think people in the industry have already taken that
into their thinking,” said Andrew Harrington, analyst at Patterson
Securities.
Source: Reuters
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