- China mandates green energy in metal sectors
- India’s aluminium scrap demand strengthens
The October 2025 edition of the BIR World Mirror on Non-Ferrous Metals highlights intensified government regulatory restrictions across Asia, shifting trade dynamics, and ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges affecting global recycling markets. From stricter import controls in China and Southeast Asia to US tariff impacts and European production slowdowns, the industry continues to adapt to evolving regulatory landscapes, logistical hurdles, and shifting demand across key regions.
Russia remains key aluminium supplier to China
According to Ma Hongchang, a regional recycling expert in China, Russia remained China’s dominant aluminium supplier in H1CY’25 despite global economic uncertainties and disrupted supply chains. China imported 1.25 million tonnes (mnt) of primary aluminium during the period, up 2.5% y-o-y, with 89.1% (1.114 mnt) sourced from Russia — a 55.3% increase. Aluminium alloy imports also surged 133.3% to 42,000 t, reflecting growing demand through processing trade routes. Policy shifts, including China’s removal of export tax rebates and international trade tensions, have reshaped the aluminium trade landscape.
China’s green push, EV resilience shape market trends
Shen Dong of OmniSource (US) said China’s NDRC is mandating 25-70% green electricity for sectors, including aluminium and steel. In August, the first shipments of recycled “black mass” cleared customs under new import rules. Auto sales in 2024 reached 31.44 million units; the 2025 target is up 3%, with EVs growing 7.5% y-o-y despite an August dip.
Tariffs drive shift to recycled aluminium as US shows resilience
Rick Dobkin of Shapiro Metals (US) highlighted ongoing trade negotiations, including a 50% tariff on Indian imports aimed at curbing Russian oil purchases. Similar talks are underway with European countries. Despite trade tensions, the US economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth revised upward for Q2. However, a government shutdown due to budget disagreements adds uncertainty, with potential impacts depending on its duration.
Primary aluminium prices remained elevated due to Section 232 tariffs, with regional premiums around $1,600/t. This has encouraged increased use of recycled aluminium, helping mills meet demand and easing spot market pressure. Production at a major Novelis mill was recently disrupted by a fire, which may affect the domestic supply of auto bodies and can sheet. Secondary aluminium prices are stable, with scrap prices flat to slightly higher since July.
Additionally, the Aurubis mill in Georgia has begun melting recycled-content non-ferrous metals, a positive development expected to enhance domestic recycling of complex materials and support the US metals market.
UK faces mounting recycling pressures amid POPs rules, energy hikes
Gareth Hyams, APM Metals LTD (GBR), noted the UK metals recycling sector faces ongoing challenges amid regulatory, economic, and environmental shifts. Battery recycling has been disrupted as mills refuse lead-acid batteries with ABS casings due to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) content, classifying them as hazardous waste — a material most recyclers are not licensed to handle.
Copper prices have surged, reaching over $10,300/t in late September, driven by supply disruptions such as the Grasberg mine incident. Despite a sluggish economy, copper inflows to UK yards remain strong. Aluminium import volumes are also healthy, with India leading demand and continued interest from Europe.
Energy costs are set to rise in October, likely impacting energy-intensive industries such as aluminium production. Additionally, talks around scrap steel export restrictions are raising concerns about potential limits on non-ferrous exports.
Australasia market sees subdued sentiment, weak volumes
Paul Coyte, President of the BIR Non-Ferrous Metals Division and from Hayes Metals (New Zealand), highlighted that consumer and business sentiment remains weak in New Zealand, with firms holding off on investment and hiring. Soft demand and high cost pressures are limiting industrial output and input volumes. Forecasters expect downside risks to persist into the next quarter, with potential sentiment improvement in 2026. In Australia, metal merchants report lower yard volumes amid strong competition, while the Reserve Bank held rates steady due to persistent inflation and softening commodity demand driven by China’s production consolidation.
Canada’s manufacturing slows down, US tariffs drive aluminium dynamics
Sebastien Perron, General Delegate and Board Member of the BIR Non-Ferrous Metals Division (CNA Metals Group, US), highlighted ongoing weakness in Canada’s manufacturing sector, with PMI declining for eight consecutive months due to US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 7.1% in September, prompting a rate cut to 2.5% by the Bank of Canada.
Meanwhile, aluminium market dynamics have shifted. Canada, the world’s fourth-largest primary aluminium producer, is seeing high-grade recycled aluminium fetch premiums over primary metal. This is driven by tariff-free exports to the US, exploiting the arbitrage between the Midwest Premium and LME prices.
India sees strong economic momentum; aluminium supply, scrap demand rise
Anirudha Agrawal of Manaksia Aluminium Co. Ltd. pointed to India’s strong economic performance in Q2CY’25, with GDP growing 7.8% y-o-y — driven by robust domestic consumption, resilient manufacturing, and a strong services sector. Improving fiscal indicators and upgraded global forecasts point to sustained growth ahead.
However, challenges such as declining FDI and a widening trade deficit, especially following the US’s imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian exports from 27 August, may impact GDP by 0.5% and hurt sectors such as textiles and jewellery.
In the aluminium market, domestic product supply has increased, and demand for aluminium scrap — both from domestic sources and imports — has strengthened considerably.
Geopolitical volatility continue to impact Eastern Europe market
According to Natallia Zholud, TRM Group (POL), geopolitical tensions intensified in Eastern Europe this autumn, with the Russian-Belarusian “West-2025” military drills and airspace violations prompting Poland to temporarily close its last border crossing with Belarus. The closure caused major disruptions to cargo flow, and even after reopening on 25 September, delays persist.
Drone attacks on Russian oil refineries led to fuel shortages, price controls, and sales limits. The G7 is preparing its 19th sanctions package targeting Russia’s energy, oil, military, and finance sectors.
In metals, rising LME copper prices are squeezing Russia’s market, where high scrap costs and price expectations do not align with weak demand. Aluminium exporters face rising transport costs, while Kazakhstan’s 9 October ban on some semi-finished metal exports raises fears of broader restrictions.
Ukraine’s metals sector remains stable, with brass and aluminium producers reporting healthy order books, though high copper prices are pressuring premiums.
Middle East trade gains momentum amid easing tensions
Rami Shahrour of Sharmetal Trading Co. S.A.R.L. (Lebanon) highlighted a positive shift in the Middle East’s trade landscape, driven by recent diplomatic progress and easing regional tensions, particularly around the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. This improving geopolitical environment is helping reduce shipping risk premiums and insurance surcharges, leading to a 20-30% drop in freight costs across the region.
As a result, the regional flow of scrap metals has picked up, supporting smelters and recyclers in the UAE, Oman, and Bahrain. Aluminium and copper exports are rising, and improved logistics are restoring competitiveness in global markets. Saudi Arabia, under Vision 2030 and the emerging Vision 2040 roadmap, is spearheading efforts to boost local manufacturing with incentives such as tax breaks, subsidised energy, and land grants. The focus is on building a full non-ferrous value chain — from scrap to smelting to finished products — with aluminium and copper at the heart of its green manufacturing ambitions.
Southeast Asia’s scrap sector faces crackdown and compliance hurdles
Stella Ying Wang of American Iron and Metal LP (Canada) observed that Malaysia’s scrap metal industry is undergoing a sharp regulatory shift. The government’s “Operation Metal” crackdown targets widespread tax evasion, freezing over 332 million ringgit in assets. Stricter compliance, rising taxes, and stalled container movement at ports are shaking industry confidence.
Thailand, once a fallback for escaping regulation, has also imposed bans and tightened rules, while China has ramped up origin inspections — especially for shipments from Southeast Asia — making exports harder due to new documentation demands such as Certificates of Origin.
Outlook
In H2CY’25, intensified government enforcement across Asia and tightening trade policies will reshape non-ferrous metals markets. Rising tariffs, energy costs, and regulatory hurdles challenge producers and recyclers globally. Despite geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns in some regions, growing demand for recycled aluminium and easing Middle East trade risks offer pockets of resilience and opportunity for industry adaptation.
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