Rice prices hit multi-year lows as buyers gain leverage

• Abundant harvests weaken export quotes across Asia
• Currency movements squeeze exporters’ margins

Asian export benchmarks tumble amid record harvests

Asian rice export markets have entered a deep correction phase, with benchmark prices falling to their lowest in years as heavy supplies and sluggish demand weigh on sentiment. Thailand’s 5% broken white rice has slipped to around $340/t, an 18-year low, driven by a strong harvest that has expanded local inventories and intensified competition among exporters.

India, the world’s top rice supplier, is witnessing similar price weakness, with export quotes at their lowest since 2016, as exporters face subdued demand and a depreciating rupee. In Vietnam, export prices have held steadier, but shipments have fallen over 40% year-on-year, particularly after the Philippines, its largest buyer scaled back imports amid adequate domestic stocks.

Currency fluctuations reshape trade competitiveness

Volatile exchange rates have added further strain to exporters’ margins. Thailand’s firmer baht has reduced price competitiveness in global markets, while India’s weaker rupee has provided limited cushion against falling international prices. Traders report that importers are taking advantage of the soft market, negotiating aggressively and delaying contracts in anticipation of additional price declines.

Demand slows as importers hold back

Outside Bangladesh, which recently secured 50,000 tonnes (t) from India through a government tender to stabilise local supplies, few major importers have been active. Buyers across Africa and the Middle East are holding off on new deals, citing ample inventories and expectations of continued price softness. Ample availability across origins has kept freight rates and delivery premiums under pressure, reinforcing a clear buyer’s market.

Ample supply eases pressure on food-importing nations

The current softness in rice prices has helped ease short-term food inflation concerns in key importing countries. For governments and aid agencies, the downturn provides temporary relief after the volatility seen during the 2023 – 24 El Niño period and India’s brief export restrictions.

However, analysts caution that the situation could shift quickly if unfavourable weather or new policy interventions disrupt supply. For now, abundant harvests, large carryover stocks, and subdued demand have firmly placed the leverage in buyers’ hands signalling a rare phase of stability and affordability in global rice trade.