Japan: Crude steel output falls by 0.6% y-o-y in Sept’26

• EAF output rises as converter steel declines
• Heavy rain disrupts blast furnace production

Japan’s crude steel production fell by 0.6% y-o-y to 6.341 million tonnes (mnt) in September 2026, marking the first decline for the month in six months, according to data released by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) on 22 October. With no major changes in domestic or export demand, the decline was attributed mainly to the impact of heavy rainfall in Chiba Prefecture and other areas during August and September.

Converter steel output declines, while EAF production rises

Converter steel production declined by 3.2% y-o-y to 4.588 mnt, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline. In contrast, electric furnace (EAF) steel production rose by 7% y-o-y to 1.756 mnt, marking a rise for the first time in two months. The heavier impact of torrential rain on blast furnace-based producers compared with electric furnace manufacturers contributed to the contrasting production trends.

Daily crude steel output averaged 211,000 tonnes in September, down from 215,000 tonnes in August. This translates to an annualised production rate of around 77 mnt.

Ordinary steel and hot-rolled steel output remain under pressure

By steel grade, ordinary steel production fell by 2.1% y-o-y to 4.802 mnt, declining for the second consecutive month. Special steel production, however, increased by 4.5% y-o-y to 1.539 mnt. Meanwhile, total hot-rolled steel production, covering both ordinary and special steel, dropped by 4.7% y-o-y to 5.597 mnt, marking its third consecutive monthly decline.

First-half production edges up by 0.5% y-o-y

For the first half of fiscal year 2026 (April-September), Japan’s crude steel production increased by 0.5% y-o-y to 40.271 mnt, marginally exceeding the year-ago level but remaining around 40 mnt. However, cumulative production for January-September declined by 0.5% y-o-y to 60.323 mnt. Depending on the pace of recovery in the October-December quarter, Japan’s full-year crude steel production is likely to remain around 80 mnt, broadly in line with the previous year.

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