India: Soybean production seen falling 2.1% to 1.079 mnt in kharif 2026

• Higher yields in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan fail to offset losses elsewhere
• Sown area rises 5% y-o-y, but moisture stress threatens harvested acreage

India’s soybean production is estimated to decline 2.1% y-o-y to 1.079 million tonnes (mnt) in kharif 2026, despite an increase in sown area, according to the first crop estimate released by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA). Prolonged dry spells and moisture stress across key growing regions have reduced yields and caused crop losses, offsetting production gains in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

SOPA projects soybean sowing at 1.177 million hectares, up from 1.121 million hectares a year earlier. The harvested area is estimated at 1.100 million hectares, while the yield on the harvested area is projected at 981 kg/ha, marginally below 983 kg/ha in kharif 2025. Yield against total sown area is estimated at 917 kg/ha.

Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan record higher output.

Madhya Pradesh, India’s largest soybean-producing state, is expected to record a 32.2% increase in production to 0.572 mnt from 0.432 mnt in kharif 2025. Sown area is projected to rise 7.1% to 0.521 million hectares, while yield is estimated to improve 24.6% to 1,108 kg/ha from 889 kg/ha.

Rajasthan’s production is projected to increase 48.2% to 0.095 mnt from 0.064 mnt. With sown area broadly stable at 0.092 million hectares, the increase is primarily driven by an expected 49.5% improvement in yield to 1,054 kg/ha.

Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana face declines.

Maharashtra’s soybean production is estimated to fall 33.2% to 0.349 mnt from 0.522 mnt a year earlier, despite an increase in sown area to 0.465 million hectares from 0.447 million hectares. Yield is projected to decline 26.9% to 855 kg/ha from 1,169 kg/ha.

Karnataka’s output is forecast to decrease 43.6% to 0.021 mnt, with yield falling 18.5% to 705 kg/ha. The sown area is estimated at 0.039 million hectares, down from 0.042 million hectares.

Telangana’s production is projected to decline 46.1% to 0.007 mnt, as yield falls 30.1% to 605 kg/ha. The sown area is expected to increase to 0.015 million hectares from 0.014 million hectares.

Gujarat’s output is expected to remain broadly stable at around 0.024 mnt, while Chhattisgarh’s production is projected to fall to 0.0016 mnt from 0.0019 mnt. Output in other states is estimated to rise to 0.011 mnt from 0.009 mnt.

Moisture stress raises crop loss concerns.

SOPA’s assessment highlights the impact of adverse weather on harvested acreage and yields. Complete crop losses are reported across Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana, affecting approximately 0.0702 million hectares. Maharashtra accounts for around 0.0567 million hectares, followed by Karnataka at 0.0097 million hectares and Telangana at 0.0037 million hectares.

Outlook

The first estimate indicates uneven soybean crop performance, with higher yields in central and northern growing regions insufficient to offset losses in western and southern states. The final production outlook will depend on validation of harvested acreage, state-wise yields, and crop loss estimates.