- Non-coking coal drives faster arrivals and broader cargo coverage
- Outstanding supply shifts towards expected vessels, reducing immediate availability
India’s visible coal, coke and petcoke supply increased to 19.25 Mnt in the vessel lineup dated 16 October, from 15.40 mnt in the 12 October snapshot.
Recorded imports through 15 October reached 10.59 mnt, while another 8.66 mnt remained at berth, anchorage or expected. Unlike the previous update, the latest figures indicate faster import momentum, led principally by non-coking coal.
However, the outstanding pipeline is now more dependent on expected vessels. Cargo physically at berth and anchorage has declined sharply as shipments move through ports, making scheduled arrivals increasingly important to sustaining the recovery.
Import momentum strengthens
Recorded imports averaged approximately 0.706 Mnt/day during 1-15 October, compared with 0.627 mnt/day through 11 October and September’s 0.613 mnt/day.
The cumulative recorded total increased by 3.69 mnt between snapshots. That difference includes revisions: entries dated 12-15 October in the latest workbook total approximately 3.33 mnt, equivalent to 0.832 mnt/day.
Even after allowing for those revisions, recent activity was stronger than the earlier month-to-date average.
Maintaining the latest cumulative rate would imply approximately 21.9 mnt for October, above September’s 18.4 mnt and October 2025’s 20.3 mnt. This is a mechanical pace indicator, rather than a forecast.
October supply visibility
Quantity in Mnt; figures provisional. Combined visibility includes 280,000 tonnes carrying November dates. Excluding these gives approximately 18.97 Mnt. Outstanding volumes also contain older-dated carryover entries. “Sailed” denotes recorded imports; outstanding comprises berth, anchorage and expected cargoes. Totals may differ slightly through rounding.
Port clearance improves, but expected cargoes dominate
Berth and anchorage volumes fell from 3.27 Mnt to 1.86 mnt, a reduction of approximately 43%. Expected cargoes increased from 5.24 Mnt to 6.80 mnt.
Consequently, expected vessels now account for approximately 79% of outstanding tonnage, against 62% previously.
Together with rising recorded imports, this is consistent with cargo progressing through ports. However, changes in schedules, quantities and coverage also influence the comparison; the decline cannot be treated entirely as discharge.
Outstanding entries cover 129 distinct vessel names, against 124 previously. This modest increase supports broader coverage, but does not establish faster vessel arrivals: loading sizes, split cargoes and revised schedules affect vessel counts.
Western ports retain approximately 55% of outstanding tonnage. Kandla leads with 1.03 Mnt, followed by Krishnapatnam at 0.95 Mnt. Mundra, Vizag and Magdalla each have approximately 0.62-0.63 Mnt.
Non-coking coal leads the recovery
Combined non-coking visibility increased from 10.21 Mnt to 13.00 Mnt, accounting for approximately 72% of the expansion in total coverage.
Recorded imports averaged 0.458 Mnt/day, against 0.406 Mnt/day previously and September’s 0.360 Mnt/day.
Indonesia remains dominant, with combined visibility of 7.03 Mnt, including 3.07 Mnt outstanding. South Africa follows at 2.41 Mnt, while US coverage reaches 1.42 Mnt. Russia contributes approximately 0.99 Mnt and Mozambique 0.82 Mnt.
Indonesian outstanding supplies include approximately 0.325 Mnt for Adani Power at Mundra. Tata Power has approximately 0.236 Mnt of Indonesian coal outstanding across its identified entries.
South African cargoes include JSW Steel at Jaigarh, Adani Power at Mangalore and Rashmi Group at Dhamra, alongside trading allocations.
US non-coking coal outstanding includes UltraTech cargoes at Kandla and Krishnapatnam, and JSW Steel at Kandla. UltraTech also has Mozambique-origin coal expected at Kandla.
The receiver mix spans power generation, cement, steel and trading. Trading allocations cannot be assigned conclusively to final consuming industries, while the non-coking classification alone does not establish whether US cargoes are NAPP or ILB coal.
Petcoke pipeline clears rather than expands
Combined petcoke visibility remained broadly unchanged at 0.97 Mnt. Recorded imports increased to 0.60 Mnt, while outstanding supply declined from 0.54 Mnt to 0.38 Mnt.
The principal development is therefore progress into recorded imports, rather than substantial additional coverage.
All outstanding petcoke is US-origin. UltraTech has approximately 0.109 Mnt across Gangavaram and Kandla. Dalmia has 0.100 Mnt across Jaigarh and Karaikal, while Chettinad has approximately 0.056 Mnt at Karaikal.
Rain CII has 0.071 Mnt expected at Vizag, demonstrating continued calcination-feedstock demand alongside cement-fuel requirements.
Steelmaking imports also gain pace
Combined coking coal visibility increased to 3.98 Mnt. Recorded imports averaged approximately 0.169 Mnt/day, up from 0.146 Mnt/day previously, although still below September’s approximately 0.197 Mnt/day.
Russia leads outstanding coking coal with 0.553 Mnt, ahead of Australia’s 0.414 Mnt. Australia nevertheless remains the largest origin in combined recorded and outstanding coverage, at 1.70 Mnt.
JSW Steel, Tata Steel and SAIL together account for approximately 79% of outstanding coking coal.
Met coke coverage increased to 0.572 Mnt, with Poland and Indonesia leading outstanding supplies. Separately classified PCI reached 0.671 Mnt, although shipping-data classifications and revisions remain important when interpreting changes.
Outlook
October’s import recovery has strengthened beyond the steady pace seen in the previous update. Non-coking coal is driving both faster recorded arrivals and additional supply coverage.
However, the pipeline’s composition has changed: less cargo is physically at ports and more remains expected. Sustaining the stronger pace now depends on timely arrivals, discharge and onward evacuation.
For buyers facing expensive imported fuel, broader visibility improves sourcing options. It does not make every expected tonne immediately available, particularly where cargoes are committed to specific consumers.
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