Japan’s 2026 rice harvest forecast at 7.41 mnt amid oversupply concerns

• Abundant supplies, record private sector inventories put pressure on prices
• Govt plans to purchase back 210,000 t of rice to rebuild depleted reserves

Japan’s 2026 rice harvest is forecast to decline 1% year-on-year to 7.406 million tonnes (mnt). Despite the marginal reduction, abundant supplies and record private-sector inventories could put further pressure on prices. The agriculture ministry is expected to revise its production estimate in mid-November after assessing weather-related harvesting delays.

Ample supplies weigh on prices

Japan’s rice market has shifted from shortages and sharp price increases to a situation of abundant supply. Increased production and the government’s release of reserve stocks have contributed to higher availability, while private-sector inventories have reached record levels. With supplies expected to exceed demand, rice prices could face further downward pressure. The marginal decline in the 2026 harvest is unlikely to ease the surplus significantly, particularly if inventory levels remain elevated.

Government plans rice purchases

The agriculture ministry has decided to purchase back 210,000 tonnes of rice from the market to rebuild government reserves depleted by earlier releases. However, continued price declines have led producers and distributors to seek additional government purchases. The scale and timing of further procurement could influence market availability, although the impact will depend on how much rice is removed from commercial circulation and the pace at which stocks are rebuilt.

Outlook

Japan is unlikely to face an immediate rice shortage, given the expected harvest and substantial available supplies. However, the combination of elevated inventories and production remaining relatively high could continue to weigh on prices. The revised production estimate due in mid-November will provide greater clarity on weather-related crop losses and the size of the surplus. Meanwhile, traders will monitor government procurement, inventory movements and prices to assess whether the market can move towards a better supply-demand balance.