West Africa: Ghana’s rice production to fall 18% in 2026-27 as farmers cut acreage

• Rice production forecast to decline by 170,000 t to 800,000 t
• Harvested area projected to shrink by 60,000 ha due to weak prices

Ghana’s rice production is forecast to decline by 17.5% y-o-y to 800,000 tonnes (t) in the 2026-27 marketing year, as weak producer prices and competition from imported rice discourage cultivation. The projected decline of 170,000 t could increase the country’s reliance on overseas supplies as domestic consumption continues to grow.

Lower acreage weighs on output

Harvested area is expected to fall to 300,000 hectares (ha) in 2026-27 from 360,000 ha a year earlier, a decline of 16.7%. In contrast, yields are projected to remain relatively stable at 3.86 t/ha, compared with 3.91 t/ha in 2025-26. The reduction in acreage reflects weak returns for farmers and competition from imported rice, which has limited the competitiveness of locally produced supplies.

Rising consumption widens supply gap

Ghana’s rice consumption is projected to increase to 1.9 million tonnes (mnt) in 2026-27 from 1.85 mnt in the previous year. With domestic production falling short of demand, imports are forecast at around 950,000 t. Ending stocks are expected to decline to 337,000 t from 487,000 t in 2025-26, reducing the buffer available to meet domestic requirements. The combination of lower output, higher consumption, and declining stocks is likely to keep imported rice important to Ghana’s supply balance.

Govt seeks to support local production

The government is seeking to strengthen domestic production through agricultural input support and increased procurement of locally grown rice. Ghana’s 2026 budget provides for 31,000 t of rice seed and 272,000 t of fertiliser. Authorities are also encouraging public institutions, schools and private businesses to purchase more domestic rice.

Outlook

Ghana’s rice import demand is expected to remain significant in 2026-27 as production declines and consumption rises. Imports are currently projected at 950,000 t, and any increase beyond this level will depend on actual production, stock availability, prices and buying activity. For Indian exporters, Ghana remains a market to watch. A sustained recovery in domestic cultivation will depend on whether farmers receive remunerative prices and local processors can compete effectively with imported rice.