- Palm product exports increase to 525,071 tonnes in the first 10 days of October
- Exports to India decline over 34%, while shipments to the EU and China strengthen
Malaysia’s palm product exports rose sharply in the first 10 days of October, supported by stronger shipments of refined palm products. However, the recovery contrasts with a steep decline in crude palm oil (CPO) exports and rising domestic inventories. September industry data showed higher production and lower exports, keeping supply pressure in focus despite stronger shipments to key destinations in early October.
Processed palm products drive export growth
Malaysia’s total palm product exports increased 33.4% to 525,071 tonnes (t) in the first 10 days of October from 393,295 t in the corresponding previous period.
CPO exports fell 52% to 73,800 t from 153,880 t. In contrast, refined, bleached and deodorized (RBD) palm olein exports more than doubled, rising 125% to 141,271 t from 62,790 t.
RBD palm stearin shipments increased 20.6% to 26,500 t from 21,965 t, while palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) exports surged 207.1% to 12,223 t from 3,980 t. Crude palm kernel oil exports fell to zero from 11,000 t.
The figures point to a shift in the export mix toward processed products. However, the decline in CPO shipments highlights uneven demand across product categories, and the early-month data alone does not establish whether the recovery will persist through October.
European and Chinese demand offsets weaker Indian buying
Malaysian palm product shipments to India declined 34.3% to 100,000 t from 152,180 t, a reduction of 52,180 t.
In contrast, exports to the European Union rose 251.8% to 109,540 t from 31,150 t, while shipments to China increased 111.7% to 23,290 t from 11,000 t.
Stronger shipments to Europe and China partly offset weaker Indian buying. However, the available data does not establish whether these increases reflect sustained demand or the timing of individual cargoes. India’s import demand and competing vegetable oil prices will remain important factors in determining the direction of Malaysian exports.
Rising production and stocks keep supply pressure elevated
Malaysia’s September CPO production increased 16.48% to 2,116,950 t. Total palm oil stocks rose 24.54% to 3,510,897 t, comprising 2,163,173 t of CPO stocks, up 31.88%, and 1,347,724 t of processed palm oil stocks, up 14.33%.
Palm kernel oil stocks also increased 17.11% to 397,225 t. Meanwhile, palm oil exports fell 12.13% to 1,120,395 t, while imports rose 17.24% to 58,064 t.
The combination of higher production, lower exports and rising inventories points to a more comfortable supply balance in Malaysia. Stronger October shipments could help absorb some of the surplus, but sustained export demand will be needed to limit further stock accumulation.
FFB prices offer modest support
The average fresh fruit bunch (FFB) price at a 1% oil extraction rate increased 1.37% to RM50.44. The increase offers a modest positive signal for upstream prices, although elevated palm oil inventories remain a more significant consideration for the broader market outlook.
Outlook
Malaysia’s palm oil market is likely to remain under supply pressure in the near term, despite the recovery in early-October exports. Higher shipments of RBD palm olein and stronger demand from Europe and China provide support, but the 52% decline in CPO exports and September’s 3.51 mnt of palm oil stocks remain bearish factors.
Export estimates over the next 10-15 days, alongside production and inventory trends, will help determine whether the recent recovery is sustainable. For Indian buyers, lower Malaysian shipments could offer some support, but the price impact will depend on supplies from other origins, domestic inventories and competing vegetable oil prices.
Leave a Reply