India: Cumin prices rise nearly 10% as futures rally and benchmark strengthens

• Spot prices rise 10% despite a 27.1% increase in arrivals
• November futures indicate fresh long buildup as open interest doubles

India’s cumin market strengthened in the week ended 9 October, with spot, benchmark and futures prices rising nearly 9-10% despite higher arrivals. The BigMint ex-Unjha benchmark increased 9.3% w-o-w to INR 25,010/quintal (qtl) from INR 22,890/qtl, while NCDEX spot prices rose 10% to INR 24,626/qtl from INR 22,395/qtl.

October futures gained 8.8% to INR 24,830/qtl, and November futures advanced 8.2% to INR 25,200/qtl. Arrivals increased 27.1% to 11,140 tonnes (t), while stocks edged lower to 3,563 t.

Spot market gains despite higher arrivals

The BigMint Ex-Unjha benchmark rose INR 2,120/qtl during the week, while spot prices gained INR 2,231/qtl. The simultaneous increase in prices and arrivals suggests that buying interest remained strong enough to absorb the additional supplies.

Arrivals rose by 2,375 t from 8,765 t in the previous week. However, stocks declined by 15 t to 3,563 t, indicating no corresponding build-up in reported inventories during the period.

November futures see fresh long buildup

October futures rose 8.8% to INR 24,830/qtl from INR 22,825/qtl, while open interest declined 28.2% to 3,453 t from 4,809. The combination of rising prices and falling open interest is consistent with short covering.

November futures advanced 8.2% to INR 25,200/qtl from INR 23,295/qtl, while open interest more than doubled, increasing 103.2% to 8,346 t from 4,107. Rising prices alongside higher open interest indicate fresh long buildup, pointing to increased bullish participation in the November contract.

Outlook

Cumin prices are likely to retain a firm bias in the near term, supported by strong spot market gains and fresh long positions in November futures. However, the 27.1% increase in arrivals remains a key factor to monitor. Sustained price strength will depend on continued demand absorption, while a further rise in supplies or weaker buying interest could increase volatility and limit gains.