India: Soybean prices rise as strong plant buying absorbs new crop arrivals

• Plant prices gain up to INR 250/qtl, benchmark reaches INR 6,600/qtl
• Firm soybean oil and DOC prices improve crushing economics

India’s soybean market strengthened sharply on 6 October despite rising new crop arrivals, as strong crusher buying supported plant and mandi prices. The benchmark plant price increased INR 250/quintal (qtl) to INR 6,600/qtl, while soybean prices at Latur, Hingoli and Gulbarga also reached around INR 6,600/qtl. Ashoknagar prices rose INR 300/qtl to INR 5,900, while several other mandis witnessed prices staying firm at INR 6,000-6,350/qtl. All-India arrivals were estimated at around 580,000 bags.

Strong plant buying lifts prices

Plant prices recorded broad-based gains. The benchmark plant increased INR 250/qtl to INR 6,600, while another major plant rose INR 250/qtl to INR 6,725. Other plants gained INR 125-150/qtl, with prices reaching INR 6,125 and INR 5,950. Two additional plants were quoted at INR 5,975 and INR 6,000, while one remained unchanged at INR 6,000.

Mandi prices also strengthened. Ashoknagar increased INR 300/qtl to INR 5,900, while Indore, Dewas and Ganjbasoda were at INR 6,000. Maharashtra markets remained firm, with Solapur at INR 6,200, Washim at INR 6,300, Buldhana at INR 6,350 and Amravati at INR 6,150.

The gains despite higher arrivals indicate that crushers are currently absorbing fresh-crop supplies at a firm pace.

Soy oil and DOC support crushing economics

Soybean derivatives provided additional support to crusher buying. Refined soybean oil increased INR 6/10 kg to INR 1,431 at one market, while another major market remained at INR 1,440. Haldia prices stood at INR 1,425, while two other markets gained INR 20 each to INR 1,441 and INR 1,460. Other markets were quoted at INR 1,445 and INR 1,450.

Plant oil prices were mixed, with one market rising INR 2/10 kg to INR 1,425 and another declining INR 5 to INR 1,420.

Soy DOC prices were also mixed. Kota prices increased INR 2,000/tonnes (t) to INR 49,000, while another market declined INR 1,500 to INR 49,500. A third market remained unchanged at INR 51,000.

Firmer oil and DOC realizations are improving crushing economics and encouraging plants to maintain procurement.

Rising arrivals remain a key risk

All-India soybean arrivals were estimated at around 580,000 bags, including approximately 380,000 bags in Madhya Pradesh and 175,000 bags in Maharashtra. Despite the sizeable arrivals, prices strengthened across several plants and mandis.

The pace of new crop arrivals will remain critical. Continued crusher buying could absorb higher supplies, while faster farmer selling combined with weaker procurement could increase supply pressure.

Global market offers mixed cues

US soybean harvest progress stood at 25%, below the five-year average of 33%, while the good-to-excellent crop rating declined to 57%. Recent rains have raised crop-quality concerns and supported prices, although drier weather could accelerate harvesting and limit gains.

US soybean oil exports in August stood at 1.465 million tonnes, down 22.54% from July and 36.1% year on year. Soymeal exports reached a record 1.366 million tonnes, supporting crushing demand. Brazil exported around 7.36 million tonnes of soybean in September, down 0.24% year on year and 25% from August.

Lower imports support domestic market

India’s soybean oil imports declined 4.6% to around 600,000 t in September, while palm oil imports increased 3.5% to 1.08 mnt, the highest level in seven months. Sunflower oil imports fell 36% to around 103,000 t, partly due to Black Sea logistical issues.

Lower soybean oil imports could support domestic prices if October-November imports remain subdued. Argentine soybean oil FOB prices were $1,215/t for October, $1,218/t for November and $1,215/t for December. Brazilian prices were around $1,250/t for October, $1,245/t for November and $1,242/t for December.

Outlook

Soybean prices are likely to retain a firm undertone in the near term, supported by strong crusher buying, firmer oil and DOC prices, slower US harvest progress and lower domestic soybean oil imports. However, rising new-crop arrivals and faster US harvesting could increase volatility.

The INR 6,600/qtl benchmark plant level remains important for near-term direction. Sustained crusher buying will be crucial for further gains, while a sharp increase in arrivals could trigger a correction.