- India’s 5% broken parboiled rice export prices rise to $378-384/tonnes (t), the highest level in a year.
- Vietnam’s rice exports are estimated at 6.4 million tonnes (mnt) during January-September, down 6.1% year on year.
India’s rice export prices have strengthened to their highest level in a year, supported by firm international demand and concerns over production amid adverse weather. As of October 3, 5% broken parboiled rice was quoted at $378-384/t, up from $375-381/t in the previous week, while 5% broken white rice was quoted at $377-382/t. Excessive rainfall in some rice-growing regions has raised concerns over crop damage, paddy quality and yields, adding further support to export prices.
Production concerns support prices
Industry sources and officials cited in the report expect India’s total rice production this year to face the possibility of a decline for the first time in around two decades. Unfavourable weather during crop development and harvesting could reduce yields in some areas. Lower production expectations, combined with steady export demand, are supporting Indian rice prices. The report noted that farmers and traders are closely watching crop arrivals, as lower-than-expected arrivals could provide further support to rice prices in the coming weeks.
Thailand prices remain stable
Thailand’s rice prices remained largely unchanged during the week. 5% broken rice was quoted at around $460/t, the same level as the previous week. Demand from regular buyers remained normal. However, the possibility of increased purchases from the Philippines is being closely watched by exporters. Thailand’s rice market is also entering a period when weather conditions and harvesting activity could influence export availability. Concerns over rainfall and storms in October and November may affect newly harvested supplies.
Vietnam rice prices weaken
Vietnam’s 5% broken rice export prices were quoted at $420-430/t, compared with around $430/t in the previous week. The market was described as weak amid slower demand and limited buying activity. Vietnam’s rice exports during January-September are estimated at 6.4 mnt, down 6.1% year on year. Export earnings are estimated at around $31 billion, according to the graphic; however, this figure appears inconsistent with typical rice export values and may reflect a source-data error. Vietnamese exporters are also facing weaker overseas buying, while reduced foreign bidding is putting pressure on prices.
Bangladesh prices remain high
Bangladesh continues to see elevated domestic rice prices. Rising local production costs, higher irrigation and cultivation expenses and concerns over future supply are contributing to the firm price environment. The report also highlighted the possibility of further increases in rice prices if supplies tighten and demand remains firm.
Outlook
Asian rice prices are likely to remain sensitive to crop arrivals, weather conditions, export demand and government procurement policies. India’s firm export prices contrast with weaker Vietnamese prices, while Thailand remains relatively stable. Further developments in India’s paddy arrivals and production estimates will be important for the regional rice market in the near term.
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