- Higher China and Brazil output lifts global production forecast by 252,000 t
- Lower consumption trims projected 2026-27 stock draw to 1.04 mnt
Global cotton supply is expected to remain below consumption in 2026-27, although the projected stock drawdown has narrowed following upward revisions to production and a modest reduction in consumption, according to Cotton Outlook’s September estimates.
The forecast for global raw cotton production in 2026-27 was raised by 252,000 tonnes (t) from August to 25.379 million tonnes (mnt), led by higher forecasts for China and Brazil. At the same time, global consumption was lowered by 52,000 t to 26.417 mnt. As a result, the projected decline in global cotton stocks fell to 1.038 mnt from 1.342 mnt in the previous estimate.
China, Brazil drive production forecast revision
China’s 2026-27 cotton production forecast was raised by 200,000 t to 7.4 mnt, while Brazil’s estimate increased by 250,000 t to 4 mnt.
The higher forecasts were partly offset by reductions for the US, Pakistan, Australia, and the African Franc Zone. US production was lowered by 98,000 t to 2.776 mnt, while Pakistan’s estimate declined by 25,000 t to 1.15 mnt.
Australia’s production forecast was reduced by 95,000 t to 680,000 t, while the African Franc Zone estimate fell by 30,000 t to 903,000 t.
For 2025-26, Cotton Outlook raised its global production estimate by 325,000 t to 27.105 mnt, mainly reflecting higher forecasts for Brazil and Australia. The revision increased the estimated addition to global stocks as of 31 August 2026 to 557,000 t from 231,000 t in the August estimate.
Lower China, US demand offsets gains elsewhere
Global cotton consumption in 2026/27 is now projected at 26.417 mnt, down 52,000 t from the August estimate.
China’s consumption forecast was reduced by 100,000 t to 9 mnt, while US consumption was lowered by 21,000 t to 327,000 t. These reductions were partly offset by stronger consumption expectations in Pakistan and Indonesia.
Pakistan’s consumption forecast was raised by 39,000 t to 2.325 mnt, while Indonesia’s estimate increased by 30,000 t to 465,000 t.
The revisions indicate softer demand expectations in some major consuming markets, although higher consumption in Pakistan and Indonesia provides some offset.
Stock draw narrows, but deficit remains.
With projected consumption still exceeding production, the global cotton balance remains in deficit for 2026-27. However, the gap has narrowed following the latest revisions.
The projected stock draw of 1.038 mnt is 304,000 t smaller than the 1.342 mnt decline forecast in August. Higher production, particularly in China and Brazil, accounts for much of the improvement in the supply balance, while the lower consumption forecast further reduces the pressure on inventories.
The latest estimates therefore point to a less pronounced tightening of global cotton stocks than previously expected. However, with production still below consumption, the market remains dependent on crop developments and demand trends in major producing and consuming countries.
Outlook
Near-term market sentiment is likely to remain focused on production developments in China, Brazil, and the US, alongside the pace of textile demand in major consuming markets. Any further changes in production or consumption estimates could materially alter the projected stock balance for 2026-27.
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