India: Black pepper prices remain stable W-o-W as arrivals and stocks rise

• Kochi spot prices edge up 0.1%, while October and December futures decline 0.4% and 1.3% W-o-W
• Arrivals rise 7.5% and Kochi stocks more than double to 35 mt

India’s black pepper market remained largely stable during the week ended September 18, with marginal gains in the Kochi spot market offset by weaker futures. Kochi spot prices increased to INR 726/kg on September 18 from INR 725/kg on September 11, gaining 0.1% week on week (W-o-W). Meanwhile, October futures declined 0.4% to INR 730/kg from INR 733/kg, while December futures fell 1.3% to INR 740/kg from INR 750/kg.

Black pepper arrivals at Kochi increased 7.5% W-o-W to 846 mt from 787 mt, while stocks rose significantly to 35 mt from 15 mt during the same period.

Higher supply availability limits price upside

The increase in arrivals and stocks indicates improved supply availability in the Kochi market. Arrivals rose by 59 mt W-o-W, while reported stocks increased by 20 mt, more than doubling over the week.

Despite the higher availability, spot prices remained broadly stable and edged up marginally. This suggests that increased supply has not yet resulted in substantial selling pressure in the physical market. However, the limited price response indicates that buying interest remains measured, potentially restricting further gains unless demand strengthens.

Futures market signals cautious positioning

The futures market showed a softer trend, particularly at the December contract. October futures declined to INR 730/kg, while December futures fell by INR 10/kg to INR 740/kg.

October open interest (OI) declined 7.6% to 73 MT from 79 MT alongside the price decline. The simultaneous fall in price and OI is consistent with position unwinding, rather than fresh long accumulation, indicating cautious positioning among market participants. December OI remained at zero, providing limited visibility into forward-market participation.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for black pepper remains mixed to cautious. Stable spot prices are offering some support, but rising arrivals and stocks, along with weaker futures, could limit upside potential. Unless buying interest strengthens or supply availability tightens, prices are likely to remain range-bound in the near term.