- Apr-Jul’26 shipments down 22%, making Dec-Feb demand crucial
- New crop arrivals remain ample, but uneven rainfall, El Nino pose risks
India’s basmati sector is moving from tight old-crop availability to fresh paddy arrivals. FY’26 exports reached 6.521 million tonnes (mnt), but April-July FY’27 shipments were 22% lower at 1.757 mnt. The slower pace does not necessarily signal weak demand, as the main export window typically strengthens during December-February with Gulf and Middle Eastern buying.
New crop puts pressure on paddy prices
The arrival of new crop has shifted the price equation. 1121 paddy has eased from the old-crop high of INR 5,600/quintal to around INR 5,000/quintal, while 1718 is trading around INR 4,800-5,000/quintal. 1509 prices are around INR 4,000-4,200/quintal, depending on quality. Meanwhile, 1121 steam rice has corrected to around INR 9,900/quintal. Further price direction will depend on new-crop arrivals, milling margins, and export realisations.
Supply, yield remain key uncertainties
Total rice sowing area as of 11 September stood at 426.81 lakh hectares, compared with 443.78 lakh hectares last year. However, this includes both Basmati and non-Basmati rice and therefore cannot directly be considered a decline in Basmati acreage. Some estimates indicate Basmati acreage could be slightly higher, while ongoing 1509 arrivals also suggest that new-crop supply is not exceptionally tight at present.
At the same time, uneven rainfall and El Nino-related risks could affect yields and actual rice recovery. If new-crop availability turns out lower than expected, competition for good-quality paddy could increase later in the season, particularly when export demand improves.
December demand will determine the next direction
The 1509 segment is already showing the impact of new arrivals, with good-quality paddy reaching around INR 4,200/quintal while normal material trades closer to INR 4,000/quintal in several mandis. Holding higher levels will depend on rice realisations and export demand. For now, 1121 paddy stands at INR 4,800-5,000/quintal, 1718 at INR 4,600-5,000/quintal, and 1121 steam at INR 9,400-10,200/quintal remain important reference levels. For old 1121 material, INR 5,600/quintal remains a key resistance area.
Outlook
Basmati paddy prices may remain range-bound to slightly weak as new-crop arrivals. A stronger export cycle from December could improve buying interest. Gulf demand could support prices. While heavy arrivals and slower bookings may keep prices under pressure. Production and yield risks could limit further price softening.
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