- Festive-season demand could support ADC12 price recovery
- Improved material availability could limit near-term upside
India’s ADC12 aluminium alloy ingot prices fell across all three major markets as of 10 September 2026, compared with August, following a sharp correction in the settlement prices of leading automakers. According to BigMint’s latest bi-monthly assessment, prices in Delhi NCR fell 1.5% m-o-m to INR 315,000/t, while Pune declined 2.1% to INR 306,000/t and Chennai edged down 0.2% to INR 310,000/t.
The downward movement was further supported by softer LME aluminium prices, lower aluminium scrap costs, and subdued spot buying activity. The correction was more pronounced in southern India, where the continued availability of competitively priced FTA-origin material exerted additional pressure on domestic prices.
Despite the price decline, automotive-sector demand remained relatively stable, although buyers continued to exercise caution amid comfortable inventory levels. However, market participants noted that imported ADC12 inventories have started to deplete, prompting buyers to make fresh enquiries in the domestic market. This could provide some support to domestic prices in the near term. In addition, demand is expected to improve in the coming weeks with the onset of the festive and marriage season, which typically supports automobile sales and, consequently, demand for ADC12 alloy ingots.
The spread between aluminium scrap and ADC12 alloy ingots narrowed further to around INR 62,000-63,000/t in Delhi NCR and Chennai, as the increase in aluminium scrap prices outpaced the movement in ADC12 alloy ingot prices. The spread is expected to widen in the coming period, supported by a likely recovery in ADC12 prices amid improving seasonal demand.
Market insights
ADC12 alloy ingot prices fell across major Indian markets amid softer raw material costs. Prices stood at:
- Chennai: INR 308,000-310,000/t
- Delhi: INR 312,000-315,000/t
- Pune: INR 305,000-306,000/t
The ADC 12 market is currently very slow, with overall material movement remaining weak. The sale price being discussed is correct; however, die-casters are currently fixing prices around INR 2-3 below the INR 310 level. Even for spot material, die-casters are selling at around INR 299 during the current opening of September.
On the raw-material side, suppliers are still creating demand and are requesting advance payments from buyers. However, from the die-casters’ side, material movement is slow and demand remains subdued. Although payment terms are generally agreed at 30 days, actual payments are currently being extended to 60-90 days. Overall, payment conditions from die-casters remain very poor, which is also affecting the pace of market activity.
At present, ADC 12 is around the INR 310/kg level and is expected to increase. Our current market expectation is that raw-material prices may start increasing around mid-September or after 15 September. Any increase in raw-material prices could subsequently lead to an increase in ADC 12 prices.
At the same time, we expect the supply of ADC 12 to increase toward the end of September, which could improve material availability in the market. The upcoming festive season is also expected to support demand and could provide additional upward pressure on prices.
Regarding the Chennai market, there are indications of a significant shortage of scrap. The shortage may become more visible or significant around October, which could further support raw-material prices and potentially impact ADC 12 prices.
Alloy imports surge y-o-y in 7MCY’26
Imports: India’s ADC12 alloy ingot imports increased 67% y-o-y during 7MCY’26 to 5,538 t, from 3,308 t in 7MCY’25. The increase was largely driven by higher imports during 7MCY’26, when competitively priced material from FTA countries, particularly Malaysia, offered a cost advantage over domestic supplies. However, import activity was relatively subdued in August as buyers continued to have inventories from previously booked shipments, limiting fresh inquiries.
Raw material trends
In September, LME aluminium prices strengthened further, with the three-month contract averaging $3,296.57/t, up $45.34/t (1.4%) m-o-m from $3,251.23/t in August. Meanwhile, LME aluminium inventories declined to 245,289 t from 251,215 t in August, down by 5,926 t (2.4%), indicating tighter metal availability and providing additional support to aluminium prices.
On the raw-material front, imported and domestic aluminium scrap prices remained firm in early September, supported by higher LME aluminium levels. Raw-material costs are expected to remain elevated throughout the month amid continued uncertainty surrounding global scrap availability. The UAE’s temporary four-month ban on aluminium scrap exports, effective until October 2026, continues to constrain supplies from a key sourcing region for Indian recyclers. Meanwhile, the EU is considering measures to restrict aluminium scrap exports, with a final decision expected in September. Any additional export restrictions could further tighten global scrap availability and provide upward support to raw-material prices.
The UAE supply outlook beyond the current restriction period also remains uncertain, as a formal notification from UAE Customs would be required to confirm the removal of the export restriction. Until greater clarity emerges, market participants are likely to remain cautious about committing to fresh supplies from the region. With raw-material costs firming and imported ADC12 inventories gradually declining, downside pressure on the Indian ADC12 market is expected to ease in September. A recovery in demand, particularly later in the month amid the festive and marriage season, could provide further support to ADC12 prices.
Among key imported grades, UK-origin Wheel scrap prices increased by $7/t m-o-m to $3,329/t in September 2026, from $3,322/t in August. US-origin Tense scrap prices declined by $33/t m-o-m to $2,495/t in September, from $2,528/t in August.
Meanwhile, China-origin silicon metal 553 prices increased by $62.5/t m-o-m to $1,452.5/t in September, from $1,390/t in August.
Outlook
Indian ADC12 prices are expected to stabilize and gradually increase in the coming weeks, supported by firmer aluminium and scrap prices, declining imported inventories, and an expected seasonal recovery in automotive demand. However, increased ADC12 availability toward late September could limit the pace of gains. Further tightening in scrap supply, particularly in Chennai, may provide additional upward pressure on raw-material and alloy prices into October.
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