India: Cumin prices soften w-o-w as farmer selling persists; festive demand supports outlook

• Favourable weather in north-west India boosts market deliveries
• Lower arrivals, stocks provide underlying price support, cap downside

India’s cumin (jeera) market remained under pressure during the week ended 28 August, with spot prices easing to INR 20,518/100 kg ex-Unjha from INR 20,606/100 kg a week earlier, a decline of INR 88/100 kg, or 0.4% w-o-w. The softer spot market reflects continued farmer liquidation ahead of the upcoming season, while favourable weather in north-west India has supported faster harvesting, drying and market deliveries.

Futures diverge from spot market

While spot prices weakened, NCDEX futures moved higher, indicating a relatively firmer forward market. The September contract increased to INR 20,905/100 kg from INR 20,735/100 kg, while the October contract rose to INR 21,305/100 kg from INR 21,200/100 kg. However, September open interest declined to 8,526 lots from 9,255 lots, pointing to liquidation, whereas October open interest increased to 1,236 lots from 687 lots.

Arrivals, stocks offer support

BigMint-monitored jeera arrivals declined to 6,086 t from 6,736 t, while stocks fell to 5,594 t from 5,905 t in Unjha. The reduction in arrivals and inventories could provide a floor to prices, although improved availability and rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement.

Domestic demand remains cautious, with large spice grinders and processors adopting a wait-and-watch approach and preferring to purchase in smaller quantities rather than build bulk inventories. On the export front, improved production prospects in Turkiye and Syria are weighing on Indian export premiums. Continued geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East are also affecting logistics and limiting demand from traditional buyers.

Outlook

Jeera prices are likely to remain largely stable with a positive bias in the near term. Farmer selling and subdued export demand may cap gains, but declining arrivals and stocks could provide support. Upcoming festive demand is expected to improve domestic procurement from processors and traders, potentially strengthening buying interest and keeping overall market sentiment positive.