Pakistan: Cotton crisis creates opportunity for India, but also a warning

• Pakistan’s structural yield decline is increasing import dependence
• India could gain relative textile competitiveness

Pakistan’s cotton sector is facing a structural productivity crisis, with average yields falling to just 1.4-1.6 tonnes/hectare, compared with historical levels of around 4.0-4.9 tonnes/hectare. Low returns are prompting farmers to shift from cotton to more remunerative crops such as rice and sugarcane, while poor seed quality and limited access to improved germplasm continue to weigh on productivity. Around 150 ginning factories have reportedly closed over the past 2-3 years, further reflecting the sector’s weakness, while Pakistan’s textile industry is becoming increasingly reliant on imported cotton.

Regional supply dynamics

Pakistan’s 2026/27 cotton imports are estimated at around 5.2 million 480-lb bales, with imports expected to cover almost half of mill requirements. This could add to international demand for cotton from major origins including the US, Brazil, Australia and Africa, potentially providing underlying support to global cotton prices and physical basis levels.

For India, however, the opportunity is unlikely to come primarily through direct exports to Pakistan given constrained bilateral agricultural trade. The more significant impact could be through improved relative competitiveness for Indian yarn, fabric and garment exporters as Pakistani mills face higher raw-material and logistics costs.

India’s own supply challenge

India remains a major cotton producer and consumer, but its production has declined from 352.48 lakh bales in 2020/21 to around 290.91 lakh bales in 2025/26, while productivity has remained broadly stagnant at about 428-451 kg/ha. Raw-cotton imports have also risen, reaching around 1.01 million tonnes in 2025/26.

This makes Pakistan’s experience a warning for India. Without stronger yields, improved germplasm and better farmer economics, declining acreage could eventually widen India’s domestic supply gap.

Outlook

In the near term, Pakistan’s growing import requirement could support regional cotton demand and strengthen India’s relative position in textiles. in the long term, India’s advantage will depend on whether productivity gains from initiatives such as the Cotton Productivity Mission can offset acreage pressures and rising domestic consumption.