LME copper prices remain near record highs amid tighter supply outlook

• Easing expectations for US interest-rate hikes support LME copper prices
• Refined copper surplus fails to offset impact of tighter mine supply outlook

LME copper prices remained firm in the week ended 21 August 2026, edging up marginally from $13,900/t to around $14,170/t. Prices remained elevated near record levels as tightening global supply, tariff-driven trade flows, and easing expectations for US interest-rate hikes continued to support the market.

Market sentiment remained broadly constructive during the week despite the rise in exchange inventories. Traders continued to focus on tightening global copper fundamentals, particularly the growing disconnect between mine supply and long-term demand expectations. Production disruptions in Indonesia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have constrained concentrate availability, while treatment and refining charges remain under pressure, reflecting continued competition among smelters for feedstock.

The copper market also remained heavily influenced by US trade policy. Material has continued to flow into the United States amid expectations of tariffs and stronger COMEX premiums, reshaping global inventory distribution. This movement has reduced available stocks in some regions and increased volatility in LME spreads. The recent flash squeeze on the LME highlighted how vulnerable the market remains to localised shortages even when headline inventories appear comfortable.

India copper scrap imports in Jul’26

India’s copper scrap imports declined in July 2026, to 36,192 t from 40,090 t in June, a drop of around 10%. The decline indicates softer import demand amid elevated copper prices and cautious buying by domestic consumers. Importers remained selective, with purchases largely driven by immediate requirements and prevailing market conditions.

However, the availability of premium-grade copper scrap remained constrained, as more high-quality material continued to flow towards China and other Far East markets.

Global refined copper market records surplus

Global copper inventories have climbed to their highest level in more than two decades as refined copper production continues to outpace consumption despite persistent mine supply disruptions across several key producing regions, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

The global refined copper market recorded a preliminary surplus of 131,000 t during January-June 2026, compared with a surplus of 114,000 t in the corresponding period last year. After adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks, the surplus stood at around 98,000 t, highlighting improved metal availability despite ongoing challenges in the upstream mining sector.

Global mine production declined 1.1% y-o-y to 11.34 million tonnes (mnt) during the first half of 2026. The decline was largely driven by a 2.6% fall in concentrate output, reflecting operational disruptions at several major mining operations.

The surplus has been reflected in exchange inventories. Combined copper stocks across the LME, COMEX and SHFE reached 964,095 t at the end of July, the highest level since August 2003. Inventories increased by 219,980 t, or 29.6%, compared with end-2025 levels. The majority of the increase occurred in the United States, where COMEX inventories expanded sharply, while SHFE stocks declined.

Japan: Copper wire shipments rise 4.3% in Jul’26 on export growth

Japan’s copper wire shipments increased by 4.3% y-o-y to 53,400 t in July 2026, marking the first annual increase in three months, according to preliminary data released by the Japan Electric Wire Industry Association (JEC). The growth was primarily driven by a sharp rise in exports and stronger automotive demand, offsetting weakness in construction, capital investment-related sectors and several domestic demand segments.

Export shipments emerged as the key growth driver during the month. Overseas shipments reached 3,400 t, nearly 3.6 times higher than the same period last year and the highest level since June 2022, when exports stood at 4,011 t. Industry sources attributed the increase to large-scale power-related projects, which boosted demand for copper wire products in export markets.