India: Cumin prices stabilise as limited farmer selling tightens availability

• Farmers increasingly show reluctance to sell at lower prices
• Muted export demand offsets support from lower production projections

Cumin prices in India showed early signs of recovery after a subdued week, as slower farmer selling and tightening availability supported the physical market. BigMint’s Ex-Unjha cumin price rose INR 67, or 0.3%, to INR 20,417/100 kg on 17 August. The gain followed a w-o-w decline in spot prices, which fell to INR 20,518/100 kg on 14 August from INR 20,730/100 kg on 7 August.

Futures market remains under pressure

Cumin futures continued to correct during the week. The August contract declined to INR 20,300/100 kg on August 14 from INR 20,720/100 kg a week earlier, while September futures fell to INR 20,725/100 kg from INR 21,085/100 kg. However, the shift in open interest suggests that market participation is moving toward the next active contract. August open interest declined 36.8% to 3,210 lots, while September open interest increased 51.5% to 7,170 lots.

Farmer selling provides price support

The physical market has gained support as farmers have become increasingly reluctant to sell at lower price levels. This has limited fresh availability despite arrivals remaining at 8,291 lots during the week. Exchange-linked stocks increased marginally to 6,186 lots on 14 August from 6,029 lots a week earlier, indicating that overall availability remains adequate but is not building sharply.

India’s cumin acreage for this year is estimated at around 408,000 hectares, below the more typical 440,000 hectares, while production is estimated at around 514,000 tonnes compared with 539,000 tonnes previously. Lower production has tightened the supply outlook and could provide underlying support to prices.

Export demand remains a key trigger

Global cumin availability remains relatively tight, particularly from competing origins, supporting international price levels and keeping interest in Indian origin active. However, India’s export pace has remained below previous levels, limiting the scope for a sharp price rally.

In the near term, cumin prices are expected to maintain a steady-to-firm bias, with farmer selling, export enquiries and fresh arrivals likely to determine the direction. A sustained improvement in export demand could strengthen the market further.