India: Maintenance shutdowns at primary steel mills to curb rebar production in Aug’26, support prices

• BF-route rebar output falls 2.2% y-o-y in H1’26
• Higher IF output cushions supply, but primary steel demand stays firm

India’s domestic long steel market is expected to remain firm over the coming weeks as planned maintenance shutdowns across major blast furnace (BF)-route integrated steel producers tighten primary steel availability. Several leading mills across the western, central, southern and eastern regions have taken rolling mills and related facilities offline for maintenance ranging from 10 days to over one month during August 2026. Based on confirmed outages, BF-route long steel production losses are estimated by BigMint at nearly 196,000 t.

Regional impact and production scenario

The largest disruption has been reported in western India, where a major private producer’s 10-day shutdown is expected to reduce output by around 38,000 t. A central India PSU producer has curtailed nearly 25,000 t during a similar maintenance period, while a southern integrated producer has remained under shutdown for almost six weeks, resulting in an estimated 83,000 t production loss. Another eastern producer has reported a 20-25-day outage, impacting around 50,000 t of output.

The maintenance-led supply disruptions come despite higher overall industry production during H1’26. India’s rebar production increased to 28.47 mnt during H1’26 from 26.65 mnt a year earlier, up 6.8% y-o-y. Growth was primarily driven by induction furnace (IF)-route mills, whose production rose to 22.11 mnt from 20.15 mnt, registering a 9.7% increase. In contrast, BF-route rebar production slipped to 6.37 mnt from 6.51 mnt in H1’25, a decline of 2.2% y-o-y.

While the higher IF-route output has improved regional supply, market participants believe it cannot fully replace BF-route material, particularly for infrastructure, government and institutional projects where branded primary steel remains the preferred choice. With project-linked demand gradually improving and mills reporting healthier order books, integrated producers are expected to limit spot allocations and maintain firmer pricing, reducing the likelihood of aggressive discounts.

Outlook

Planned BF-route maintenance shutdowns are expected to keep nearly 0.2 mnt of primary long steel capacity offline through August, tightening spot availability despite healthy industry-wide production. Although higher IF-route output should prevent any significant supply shortage, reduced availability from integrated producers is likely to strengthen mills’ pricing power. If the eastern India outage extends beyond schedule, domestic long steel prices could witness further upside, supported by improving project demand and tighter primary steel supplies.