- Chile’s copper output falls 9.5% in H1CY’26 to weakest in 19 years
- DRC imposes concentrate export ban to boost domestic processing
LME copper prices strengthened sharply in the week ended 7 August 2026, rising around 2% w-o-w to a six-month high of $14,260/t, as tightening physical availability and fresh supply concerns outweighed demand-side uncertainties.
The rally was supported by continued declines in LME inventories, which fell around 8% w-o-w to 222,975 t, while the market also reacted positively to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) immediate ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports.
The DRC’s export ban strengthened bullish sentiment despite limited near-term impact, as most copper is processed domestically. During Q1CY’26, the DRC exported around 696,725 t of refined copper cathodes, compared with only 53,926 t of copper concentrates, while Kamoa-Kakula’s 500,000 t/y smelter is already processing a significant share of its concentrate locally. However, the ban could become more significant over the longer term
Supply concerns were further reinforced by disruptions in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer. Antofagasta’s H1 copper production fell 9.5% y-o-y to 285,000 t to its lowest in 19 years, following severe weather disruptions, while operations at Codelco’s Andes Norte section of the El Teniente mine could remain suspended for up to two years.
Meanwhile, the market continued to show signs of a short-term physical squeeze. LME cash-to-3M spreads widened to around $150/t, their highest level since October 2025, indicating strong demand for prompt metal, while visible inventories in both the LME and China continued to decline.
At the same time, more than 200,000 t of copper entered US ports in July, the highest monthly inflow in over a decade, as traders continued positioning ahead of potential US tariffs. The resulting concentration of copper in US warehouses has tightened availability in other regions and increased regional physical premiums.
Overall, market sentiment turned bullish, with participants focusing on tightening inventories, mine disruptions, the DRC export ban, and constrained regional availability.
Global updates
China’s copper exports surge amid higher refined output
China’s copper exports rose 17.7% y-o-y to 0.88 mnt in H1CY’26, supported by higher refined production and resilient overseas demand. June exports surged 33.3% m-o-m to 0.15 mnt, while cathode exports reached 0.33 mnt, up 5% y-o-y. China also increased copper scrap imports by 8.3% to 0.84 mnt as smelters faced tight concentrate availability and weak TC/RCs. Exports to India remained strong, with finished long copper product shipments rising 30% y-o-y to 13,222 t, reinforcing China’s growing role in India’s downstream copper market.
Japan shifts copper exports toward value-added products
Japan’s copper exports rose 1.3% y-o-y to 0.66 mnt in H1CY’26, with China and India accounting for 48% and 17% of shipments, respectively. Refined copper cathode exports declined 15% to 324,786 t, while finished long and flat products increased 20% and 15%, respectively. Meanwhile, India’s cathode imports rose 19% y-o-y to 127,818 t, with Japan supplying nearly 70%, highlighting its continued dominance in India’s refined copper market.
India updates
Domestic scrap prices strengthened during this week, with armature scrap, ex-Delhi, rising 1.4% w-o-w to INR 1,284,000/t, supported by higher LME prices and tightening imported scrap availability.
High-grade scrap supply remained constrained due to subdued European generation, processing disruptions, higher freight costs, and cargo diversion towards Far East Asia and Pakistan. Although monsoon conditions kept domestic trading subdued.
Copper cathode prices in western India rose sharply during this week, with ex-Mumbai prices increasing to INR 1,395,000/t from INR 1,333,000/t, while Ahmedabad prices rose to INR 1,397,000/t from INR 1,335,000/t. The rally was supported by LME copper prices above $14,000/t, a 3.6% w-o-w rise in MCX futures, and tightening inventories.
Outlook
Copper’s outlook remains constructive, supported by tightening physical availability and elevated prices near record levels. The sustained COMEX-LME premium is expected to continue diverting refined copper into the U.S., tightening supply elsewhere.
The DRC’s revised export restrictions are unlikely to significantly disrupt refined copper availability in the near term, given the country’s existing downstream processing capacity and limited concentrate exports. The move has added bullish sentiment to an already tight copper market, with future price impacts depending on export waivers, new processing capacity, and the growth of the DRC’s concentrate surplus.
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